持续加大对乡村振兴支持力度。截止24Q3 末，邮储银行资产总额较23 年末增长6.48%。客户贷款较23 年末增长7.74%，其中，个人贷款增长 5.69%，公司贷款增长11.66%。邮储银行持续加大乡村振兴重点领域信贷投放力度，涉农贷款余额2.22 万亿元，较23 年末增加1872.77 亿元；普惠型小微企业贷款余额1.58 万亿元，在客户贷款总额中占比超过18%，小微企业金融服务监管评价连续3 年获评最高等级。Profitability remains steady. In the first three quarters of 2024, Postbank's revenue growth rate was +0.1%, and net profit growth rate to mother was +0.22%. 24Q3 revenue was +0.5% year over year, and net profit to mother was +3.5% year over year, both up from 24Q2.
The growth rate of net interest income increased. Under the company's caliber, the 24Q1-3 net interest spread was 1.89%, down 2 bps from 24H1.
According to our estimates, the net interest spread for the 24Q3 single quarter was 1.77%, down 1 bps from month to month. 24Q3 net interest income was +0.7% year over year, up from 24Q2 (+0.6% increase in 24Q2).
Continue to increase support for rural revitalization. As of the end of 24Q3, Postbank's total assets increased by 6.48% compared to the end of 23. Customer loans increased 7.74% from the end of '23. Among them, personal loans increased 5.69% and corporate loans increased 11.66%. The Postbank continued to increase credit investment in key areas of rural revitalization. The balance of agricultural loans was 2.22 trillion yuan, an increase of 187.277 billion yuan over the end of 23; the balance of loans for inclusive small and micro enterprises was 1.58 trillion yuan, accounting for more than 18% of total customer loans. The financial services supervision evaluation for small and micro enterprises was rated the highest level for 3 consecutive years.
Investment advice. We forecast EPS of 0.83, 0.85, 0.89 yuan in 2024-2026, and net profit growth rates of 1.16%, 3.19%, and 4.00%. We obtained a reasonable value of 7.24 yuan based on the DDM model; according to the PB-ROE model, the 2024E PB valuation was 0.70 times (0.61 times that of a comparable company), and the corresponding reasonable value was 5.94 yuan. Therefore, the reasonable value range was 5.94-7.24 yuan (corresponding PE in 2024 is 7.18-8.76 times, corresponding PE is 6.13 times that of the same company), maintaining the “superior to the market” rating.
Risk warning: The solvency of enterprises has declined, asset quality has deteriorated dramatically; financial supervision policies have undergone major changes.
