2024Q3 achieved profit in a single quarter for the first time, is optimistic about the game and advertising business, and maintains a “buy” rating

The company achieved operating income of 19.097 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024 (+18.04% year-on-year), and adjusted net profit to mother of -0.475 billion yuan (loss narrowed by 2.394 billion yuan year-on-year). 2024Q3 achieved operating income of 7.306 billion yuan (YoY +25.85%, month-on-month +19.23%) and adjusted net profit of 0.236 billion yuan (year-on-year loss to profit). Revenue from value-added services in 2024Q3 was 2.821 billion yuan (+9% YoY), mainly due to increased revenue from live streaming and other value-added services; advertising revenue of 2.094 billion yuan (+28% YoY), mainly due to advertising product optimization and improved advertising efficiency; mobile game revenue of 1.823 billion yuan (+84% YoY), mainly due to the strong performance of “Three Kingdoms: Designing the World”; and 0.567 billion yuan (YoY -2%). Based on the company's performance and data performance, we raised our profit forecast. The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is -12.27/3.02/13.59 billion (previous value was -13.79/0.29/7.43) billion yuan, corresponding EPS was -2.9/0.7/3.2 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE in 2025/2026 was 189.5/42.1 times, respectively. We are optimistic that games, membership, advertising, and IP monetization will continue to drive growth and maintain the “buy” rating.

Operational efficiency continues to improve, and increased gross margin and cost control jointly drive increased profitability

2024Q3's gross margin was 34.9% (+9.9pct year over year, +5pct month-on-month), mainly due to the fact that the revenue growth rate was higher than the revenue sharing cost growth rate and the platform's operating costs remained relatively stable. The 2024Q3 sales expense ratio was 16.5% (-0.6 pct year on year, -0.5 pct month on month), the management expense ratio was 6.9% (-1.7 pct year on year, -1.1 pct month on month), and the R&D expense ratio was 12.4% (-6 pct year on year, -2.2 pct month on month). Under increased gross margin and cost rate control, the company achieved quarterly profit for the first time, and the adjusted net profit margin was 3.2%.

User traffic continues to grow, and commercial space may open up further

2024Q3 B station DAU reached 1.07 (+4% YoY, +5% month-on-month), MAU reached 3.48 (+2% YoY, +4% month-on-month), DUA and MAU both reached record highs, and the DAU/MAU ratio reached 30.75% (+0.6pct year over year, +0.39pct month-on-month), and user stickiness continued to increase. The average daily usage time of 2024Q3 users was 106 minutes (+6 minutes compared to the previous year, +7 minutes compared to the previous month), and the user time also reached a record high. The average number of interactions with 2024Q3 reached 19.3 billion per month (+14% year over year). Under the premise that user traffic continues to grow, user activity has further increased, which is expected to drive an increase in the commercial value of the platform's advertising and membership, and further open up the platform's long-term monetization space.

Risk warning: The launch time or performance of new games falls short of expectations, the commercialization process of video accounts falls short of expectations, etc.