美国前总统特朗普在其第一任期内对美国进口商品征收了惩罚性关税，他已明确表示将在明年一月就任后再次这样做。虽然这有可能会推高消费者价格，但Abric表示，美联储主席鲍威尔及其团队将渴望避免对任何可能短暂的经济影响过度反应。Castle Securities believes that the Federal Reserve's policy is different from the short-term tariff effects and is more likely to overlook the impact of tariffs.
Stanley Agriculture Group's American inflation director Durham Abric said that the Fed's rate cut path may not be disrupted by the upcoming protectionist stance of the Trump administration.
In an interview on Wednesday, Abric said, "The Fed may overlook the impact of tariffs, because monetary policy has little effect on temporary, tariff-driven inflation."
Former U.S. President Trump imposed punitive tariffs on imported goods during his first term, and has explicitly stated that he will do so again after taking office in January next year. Although this may raise consumer prices, Abric stated that Fed Chairman Powell and his team would be eager to avoid overreacting to any potential short-term economic impact.
He said that after all, the impact of tariffs in the first term on overall prices was limited. Although new tariffs may temporarily pressure prices, Abric believes they will not have a significant impact on Fed policy.
Abric stated, "Given the Fed's tendency to cut rates, the recent rise in front-end real yields may be nearing its end, however, with expectations for stronger growth and sticky inflation, long-term yields may continue to rise."
Since mid-September, the expected increase in the Fed's policy interest rates has far exceeded expectations for inflation, pushing terminal real interest rate expectations to nearly 1.25%, the highest level since July.
Abric's comments were made after key inflation data on Wednesday matched expectations and led to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields. Long-term rates have remained high since the November 5th election.
Economists predict that higher tariffs will bring upward risks to inflation, but the overall impact on consumer prices to some extent depends on whether workers can negotiate higher wages and strengthen the inflation effect. On the other hand, a weak labor market will curb demand and may offset the impact of tariffs.
The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points last week. Powell said that the election will not have "any impact" on the Fed's short-term decisions. He stated that it is still too early to determine the timing and substance of any potential fiscal policy changes.
However, this has not completely dispelled traders' concerns. Companies like Stanley Black & Decker Inc. and Whirlpool Corp. are already considering raising prices to cope with the increase in tariffs.
