As you might know, Shift4 Payments, Inc. (NYSE:FOUR) last week released its latest quarterly, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Shift4 Payments missed analyst forecasts, with revenues of US$909m and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.74, falling short by 6.6% and 7.5% respectively. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Shift4 Payments after the latest results.
Following the latest results, Shift4 Payments' 18 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$4.48b in 2025. This would be a sizeable 42% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 85% to US$3.33. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$4.62b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.42 in 2025. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.
What's most unexpected is that the consensus price target rose 13% to US$110, strongly implying the downgrade to forecasts is not expected to be more than a temporary blip. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Shift4 Payments, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$126 and the most bearish at US$48.91 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 33% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 33% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 4.4% per year. So it's pretty clear that Shift4 Payments is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Shift4 Payments. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Shift4 Payments analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Plus, you should also learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Shift4 Payments (including 1 which is significant) .
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
