Today, the soybean meal futures prices opened with a gap down in the early session, with the soybean meal 2505 contract breaking below the 2900 mark. As of the midday close on November 15, the decline was 3.33%, with a quote of 2814 yuan/ton.

Soybean meal monitoring tool - Market

Planting conditions in Brazil's main producing areas.

According to the November forecast released by CONAB, the national commodity supply company under the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, it is estimated that Brazil's soybean production for the 2024/25 season will reach 0.1661434 billion tons, an increase of 18.4247 million tons year-on-year, representing a 12.5% increase, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.0895 million tons, or 0.1%. It is also estimated that the soybean planting area in Brazil for the 2024/25 season will reach 47.3565 million hectares, an increase of 1.2077 million hectares year-on-year, which is a 2.6% increase, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.0247 million hectares, or 0.1%. The estimated average yield for Brazilian soybeans for the 2024/25 season is 3.51 tons/hectare, an increase of 307.437 kg/hectare year-on-year, which is a 9.6% increase, and an increase of 0.061 kg/hectare quarter-on-quarter, remaining basically stable. CONAB's forecast has adjusted upward Brazil's soybean production, strengthening global expectations for high soybean yields.

Using the soybean meal monitoring tool - South American soybean growth monitoring (experience it now), we found that as of November 10, Brazil's soybean planting progress was at 66.1%, up 12.8% week-on-week and 17.7% year-on-year. The data indicates that the soybean planting progress in Brazil is quite smooth.

Soybean meal monitoring tool - South American soybean growth monitoring.

Zhengxin Futures stated that the bearish sentiment from South America continues to pressure US soybeans lower. Domestic oil plants have a sufficient supply of soybeans and soybean meal overall, but are facing a continuous destocking process. The marginal improvement expectation provides support for short-term continuous soybean meal; however, the weather in South America's soybean-producing areas remains favorable, which may drag US soybeans lower and lead to weak fluctuations in continuous soybean meal.

We can continuously monitor the weather, soil moisture, and drought stress index in the main soybean producing areas through the soybean meal tracking tool - global production area weather, soil moisture, and drought stress index (click the link to experience).

In terms of weather, overall rainfall has increased, and the humid weather is beneficial for soybean planting.

Soybean meal tracking tool - production area weather

Regarding soil moisture, the soil moisture in Brazil's central-west main producing area has changed from below the five-year average to returning to the near five-year average range, indicating that the recent rainfall has positively impacted the improvement of soil moisture, greatly alleviating drought conditions. The soil moisture in the southern main producing area of Brazil has always remained within the near five-year average range; therefore, no soil drought has occurred. Soil moisture data shows overall benefits for soybean planting.

Soybean meal monitoring tool - Soil Moisture

Soybean meal monitoring tool - Soil Moisture

In terms of drought stress index, the southern hemisphere's drought stress index once exceeded the near five-year average range, indicating that drought troubled the main soybean producing areas in the southern hemisphere, but it has now returned to the near five-year average range, showing that previous drought conditions have been effectively alleviated by recent heavy rainfall. The drought stress index indicates benefits for soybean planting.

Soybean meal monitoring tool - Drought Pressure Index

Planting situation in Argentina's main production areas.

According to foreign media reports, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange stated that last week the soybean planting progress for the 2024/25 season in Argentina was very smooth, as there was sufficient rainfall in the country's main agriculture areas over the past few weeks. According to exchange data, farmers have planted 20.1% of the expected 18.6 million hectares, an acceleration of 12.2 percentage points compared to the previous week.

Soybean meal monitoring tool - Weather in Argentina's main soybean production areas experienced heavy rainfall earlier, but recent rainfall has decreased.

Soybean meal monitoring tool - Weather in the production areas.

Soybean meal monitoring tool - Soil moisture (Argentina): The soil moisture in Argentina has remained within the average range for the past five years, so the soil conditions are good and have not been affected by drought. The soil moisture data is favorable for soybean planting.

Soybean meal monitoring tool - Soil Moisture

Institutional perspective

Shenwan Hongyuan Futures: This month's USDA supply and demand report data is bullish, and there have been short-term emotional boosts due to domestic soybean meal news disturbances and concerns over trade friction, leading to increased volatility in soybean meal prices. However, once the emotions dissipate, the trend of the market will still be determined by later South American weather changes. If there are no significant weather risks in South America, this year's bumper soybean harvest will continue to suppress the upper space of soybean meal. Currently, recent South American weather has turned slightly dry, but overall weather issues are minimal, and the expectation of a bumper soybean harvest in South America remains unchanged, with short-term soybean meal likely to continue in a range-bound trend.

Huatai Futures: Overall, the impact of the previously dry weather in Brazil on the planting progress has been largely eliminated, and the soybean planting progress in Brazil has surpassed historical levels for the same period. The recent abundant rainfall is clearly beneficial for the planting and growth of the new season's soybeans. Continued attention is still needed on the weather conditions in South America and changes in policy.