Shareholders of Exagen Inc. (NASDAQ:XGN) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 12% to US$2.90 following its latest third-quarter results. It was a moderately negative result overall - revenue fell 7.8% short of analyst estimates at US$13m, although at least statutory losses were marginally smaller than expected, at US$0.28 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Exagen's six analysts is for revenues of US$65.2m in 2025. This would reflect a notable 17% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 35% to US$0.64. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$65.0m and losses of US$0.84 per share in 2025. While the revenue estimates were largely unchanged, sentiment seems to have improved, with the analysts upgrading their numbers and making a very promising decrease in losses per share in particular.
The average price target held steady at US$6.25, seeming to indicate that business is performing in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Exagen at US$8.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$5.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Exagen's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 13% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 7.2% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 22% per year. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, Exagen is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$6.25, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Exagen going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Exagen .
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
