Last week, you might have seen that ICU Medical, Inc. (NASDAQ:ICUI) released its third-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.7% to US$172 in the past week. Revenues of US$589m beat expectations by a respectable 2.2%, although statutory losses per share increased. ICU Medical lost US$1.35, which was 87% more than what the analysts had included in their models. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on ICU Medical after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from ICU Medical's seven analysts is for revenues of US$2.40b in 2025. This reflects a modest 2.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 74% to US$1.20. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$2.41b and losses of US$0.76 per share in 2025. While next year's revenue estimates held steady, there was also a considerable increase to loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.
Despite expectations of heavier losses next year,the analysts have lifted their price target 14% to US$199, perhaps implying these losses are not expected to be recurring over the long term. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic ICU Medical analyst has a price target of US$225 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$178. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the ICU Medical's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that ICU Medical's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.0% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 16% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 8.2% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that ICU Medical is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple ICU Medical analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with ICU Medical (at least 1 which is significant) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
