A week ago, BioLife Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:BLFS) came out with a strong set of quarterly numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. The results were impressive, with revenues of US$31m exceeding analyst forecasts by 20%, and statutory losses of US$0.04 were likewise much smaller than the analysts had forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the nine analysts covering BioLife Solutions provided consensus estimates of US$101.9m revenue in 2025, which would reflect a sizeable 31% decline over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 76% to US$0.26. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$119.3m and losses of US$0.26 per share in 2025. So there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a substantial haircut to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time holding losses per share steady.
There was no real change to the average price target of US$29.30, suggesting that the revisions to revenue estimates are not expected to have a long-term impact on BioLife Solutions' valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on BioLife Solutions, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$32.00 and the most bearish at US$26.00 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting BioLife Solutions is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 25% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 29% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 6.5% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - BioLife Solutions is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple BioLife Solutions analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with BioLife Solutions , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
