FX168 Financial News (Asia Pacific) reported that on Friday (November 15), Asian stock markets are likely to end the week with more stable performance amid a lackluster trading week. Meanwhile, the dollar is nearing a one-year high, expected to achieve significant weekly gains, as the Fed chairman's hawkish shift pushes up short-term US Treasury yields, causing futures for Wall Street and European stock markets to decline.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (excluding Japan) rose 0.4%, but fell 4.1% this week, marking the largest weekly decline since June 2023. Tokyo's nikkei/yen rose 0.7% as the weakened yen boosted the prospects for Japanese exporters, though it still dropped 1.7% this week. #Decision Analysis#

Data released on Friday showed that china's retail data exceeded expectations, indicating signs of consumer spending growth in the world's second-largest economy, although other indicators fell short of expectations.

China's stock market narrowed earlier losses, with official data showing that retail sales grew 4.8% in October, exceeding expectations, but industrial output growth lagged behind expectations and the decline in real estate investment intensified. China's blue chip stocks fell 0.2%, while Hong Kong's hang seng index rose 0.5%.

On Friday, nasdaq futures fell 0.4%, while s&p 500 futures declined by 0.3%. Eurozone stock 50 futures dropped 0.4%.

In terms of us policy, even before Powell's speech, producer price data indicated that core indicators were slightly above expectations, raising concerns in the market about future interest rate cuts.

Overnight, Fed chairman Powell stated that there is no need to rush into interest rate cuts due to the economy still growing, a strong job market, and an inflation rate still above the 2% target, thus reducing market expectations for a rate cut next month.

Fed fund futures fell, with December contracts dropping by 7 basis points, and the anticipated rate cut by the end of 2025 is 71 basis points. The likelihood of a rate cut next month is no longer high, currently only at 61%, down from 82.5% the previous trading day.

Goldman Sachs now predicts that the Federal Reserve may slow down the pace of interest rate cuts in December or January, while JPMorgan expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates in December but potentially slow down rate cuts in January.

"After a brief stimulative effect brought by Trump's election, market enthusiasm has gradually waned due to increased uncertainty about next year's interest rates," said Kyle Rodda, senior analyst at Capital.com.

Additionally, the regional medical care index fell by 0.7% after Trump nominated well-known vaccine skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for the top position in the U.S. health agency.

In the forex market, the dollar is expected to rise 1.7% against major currencies this week. The dollar has risen against major currencies, especially against the euro, after expectations of relaxed European policies further pressured the euro, which had already fallen to a one-year low.

The euro has suffered a heavy setback, reaching $1.0541, a decline of 1.7% this week. The latest European Central Bank meeting minutes indicate that last month's rate cut may have been merely a precautionary measure.

However, market expectations for the European Central Bank are more moderate, with a 36% probability that it will intensify easing in December, cutting by 50 basis points to address growth risks, and it is expected that the European Central Bank may continue to cut rates until the middle of next year.

The dollar against the yen has risen for five consecutive days, adding another 0.1% to 156.36, the highest level since July.

Yen bears remain vigilant as Japan's Ministry of Finance continues to issue warnings about possible government action in response to exchange rate fluctuations. The Bank of Japan also announced that Governor Ueda Kazuo will deliver a speech on Monday, and the market will be looking to see if he reveals the timing of the next interest rate hike.

Short-term us treasury yields soared overnight and remained high on Friday. The two-year treasury yield held at 4.358%, jumping 6 basis points overnight to 4.357%.

The strengthening of the dollar is putting pressure on commodity prices, with international gold prices dropping 4.4% this week to $2,565.18, accumulating a decline of 6.5% so far this month.

Oil prices also fell this week. Brent crude oil futures dropped 2.8% this week, currently trading around $71.80 per barrel.