According to gtja's research report, due to weak global consumer demand, samsonite (01910) reported Q3 revenue of 0.88 billion USD, down 8.3% year-on-year / down 6.8% at constant exchange rates. The gross margin decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 59.3% due to the decline in income share from the higher-margin asia region and TUMI, compounded by relatively rigid sales expenses, resulting in a net income of 0.066 billion USD, down 39.1% year-on-year. The adjusted profit margin was 17.6%, down 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, lower than the previous expectation of 19%.

The report stated that the samsonite brand shows resilience, while TUMI is pressured by consumer down-grading. 1) By brand: Q3 samsonite / TUMI / american tourister revenue was 0.48 / 0.19 / 0.14 billion USD, down 3.9% / -9.5% / -17.0% year-on-year, stripping out exchange rates, -2.2% / -8.9% / -15.1%. In the context of a high base in 2023, samsonite maintained relative resilience; TUMI saw substantial fluctuations in the usa and asia regions, but still maintained a steady growth trend in europe; american tourister was short-term pressured due to increased market competition and promotions, but maintained a double-digit growth target in the medium term. 2) By channel: Q3 wholesale / DTC revenue was 0.53 / 0.35 billion USD, down 11.5% / -3.1% year-on-year, stripping out exchange rates, down 10.4% / -0.8%; amid weak consumer conditions, wholesalers are more cautious with their purchases, while the company continues to strengthen its DTC channels, increasing its self-operated stores by 21 to 1,104, and achieving positive growth in multiple regions. 3) By region: Q3 revenue in asia / north america / europe / latin america was 3.3 / 0.3 / 0.21 / 0.05 billion USD, down 12% / -8% / -2% / -8% year-on-year, stripping out exchange rates, down 12% / -8% / -2% / +14%.

The report continues to indicate that as the high base effect fades, sales growth has turned positive since October, with nearly double-digit year-on-year growth in doubles’ day sales in china. The revenue guidance for 2024 is expected to remain flat year-on-year (at constant exchange rates), and looking to 2025, the company will continue to focus on higher profit margin brands, channels, and regions, with steady growth expected in both income and profit. Considering the weak terminal consumption leading to lower-than-expected Q3 profits, the report has revised down the company's net income for 2024-2026 to 0.389 / 0.436 / 0.49 billion USD (the previous estimates were 0.422 / 0.457 / 0.497 billion USD), with the current stock price corresponding to PEs of 9 / 8 / 7 times, maintaining a shareholding rating.