深度绑定AMD，共享AI 红利。公司2016 年收购AMD 封测工厂,目前以“合资+合作”的方式建立了紧密的战略合作伙伴关系，目前AMD 约占公司70%的收入。AMD 凭借MI 系列在AI 领域的竞争力走出了新的成长曲线，AMD 在2023 年12 月推出了MI300X 作为其最新的AI GPU旗舰，配备192GB 的HBM3 内存和5.2 TB/s 的内存带宽，性能为H100的1.3 倍。同时，AMD 在服务器CPU 方面持续挤占Intel 份额；在台式机CPU 方面，ZEN5 助力AMD 市场份额创新高；在笔记本电脑CPU 方面，AMD 份额同环比均或增长。随着AMD 在AI 领域的持续突破及传统PC 和服务器业务的回暖，公司将持续受益于与 AMD 合作战略，通富超威苏州和超威槟城基地营收有望持续增长。Report summary:
The company is a leader in the sealing and testing industry, and has seven major production bases and full packaging categories. Tongfu Microelectronics is the fourth largest third-party sealing and testing plant in the world. The company has seven production bases in Nantong, Hefei, Xiamen, Suzhou, and Penang, Malaysia. The company can provide packaging types, including frame packages, substrate packages, COG, COF, SIP, 2.5D/3D, etc., covering a wide range of packaging types and strong mass production capabilities. The company accounts for a high share in the field of advanced packaging, and continues to develop new technologies and products represented by 2D+. In the field of high-performance computing, the self-built 2.5D/3D high-end production line is already fully connected.
The company's advanced packaging technology is leading domestically, and the package type layout is complete. In the first half of 2024, the company upgraded its large-size multi-chip Chiplet packaging technology and developed new processes such as Corner Fill and CPB for the characteristics of large-size multi-chip Chiplet packaging to enhance chip protection and further improve chip reliability. In terms of power, the company completed R&D of the Easy3B module in the first half of the year and began mass production in small batches. It was the first in China to use a Cu bottom plate gluing module, which is used in solar inverters. Compared with traditional Easy1B and 2B modules in the market, it can reduce the thermal resistance and power consumption of the system more effectively. At the same time, the company's many investments are progressing in an orderly manner, and the company plans to acquire 26% of Jinglong Technology (Suzhou)'s shares to reinforce the testing process, and plans to invest in indirect ownership of lead frame supplier AAMI to enhance supply-side lead frame supply capacity.
Deeply bind to AMD and share AI dividends. The company acquired the AMD packaging and testing factory in 2016, and has now established a close strategic partnership through a “joint venture+cooperation”. Currently, AMD accounts for about 70% of the company's revenue. AMD has taken a new growth curve with the competitiveness of the MI series in the AI field. AMD launched the MI300X as its latest AI GPU flagship in December 2023, equipped with 192 GB of HBM3 memory and 5.2 Tb/s of memory bandwidth, with 1.3 times the performance of the H100. At the same time, AMD continues to squeeze out Intel's share in server CPUs; in terms of desktop CPUs, ZEN5 helped AMD reach a record high market share; in terms of laptop CPUs, AMD's share increased year-on-year. As AMD continues to break through in the AI field and the recovery of traditional PC and server businesses, the company will continue to benefit from the partnership strategy with AMD, and the revenue of Tongfu Chaowei's Suzhou and Chaowei Penang bases is expected to continue to grow.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 23.86/28.52/32.74 billion yuan, respectively, and net profit to mother of 0.86/1.18/1.51 billion yuan, respectively. The corresponding PE is 64x/47x/37x, respectively. Give it a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Recovery falls short of expectations; demand for advanced packaging falls short of expectations; competitive landscape deteriorates.