According to a report from Zhito Finance APP, on November 15, the China Building Materials Circulation Association announced that the national building materials and home furnishing prosperity index BHI for October was 127.65, which was a month-on-month increase of 0.97 points and a year-on-year decrease of 6.77 points. The sales revenue of large-scale building materials and home furnishing stores nationwide in October was 144.403 billion yuan, an increase of 1.52% month-on-month, and a decrease of 2.71% year-on-year. The cumulative sales from January to October amounted to 1229.895 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.62%. In October, the national building materials and home furnishing market continued to experience the "golden September and silver October" peak season, with the consumption upgrade policy further showing its effects and the consumer demand for building materials and home furnishing further stimulated, the BHI slightly rose in October.

First, analyzing the national real estate market situation: After the central political bureau meeting on September 26 proposed to "promote the stabilization of the real estate market," the four first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen quickly optimized their purchase restrictions, while the core second-tier cities also largely lifted the restrictions. Additionally, policies that have been implemented since the end of September, such as lowering the down payment for first and second homes, lowering existing mortgage rates, and interest rate cuts, have continuously released bullish policies. In the new housing market, the pace of launching new projects by housing enterprises accelerated in October, driven by the introduction of high-quality improvement projects in some cities. The average price of newly built residential buildings in 100 cities increased month-on-month. During the National Day period, the visit and purchase volumes in multiple core city projects significantly improved, leading to a substantial month-on-month increase in new home sales area in October. According to data from the China Index Academy, in October 2024, the average price of newly built residential buildings in 100 cities was 16,532 yuan/square meter, a month-on-month increase of 0.29% and a year-on-year increase of 2.08%.

In the second-hand housing market, policy-driven expectations have been restored, resulting in an increase in transactions of second-hand houses in core cities, while homeowners' bargaining space has narrowed. Data shows that the average price of second-hand residential buildings in 100 cities in October was 14,360 yuan/square meter, a month-on-month decrease of 0.6%, narrowing the decline by 0.1 percentage points from September, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.27%.

The national building materials and home furnishing market, which is closely related to the real estate market, continued to experience peak season trends in October. The sales revenue of large-scale building materials and home furnishing stores in October saw a month-on-month increase of 0.97%, maintaining a high level. Since the end of September, the effects of the consumption upgrade subsidy policies have been accelerating, combined with the National Day and "super long singles' day sales" holiday effects, consumers' demand for building materials and home furnishing continues to be released, and market vitality continually increases.

Next, analyzing the BHI sub-index situation: this month's sub-index "popularity index" performed brightly, with a value of 184.87, a month-on-month increase of 55.92 points, ranking first. This month, many local counties and districts have successively released implementation details for the "old-for-new" subsidy policy in the home furnishing and decoration sector, coupled with the National Day consumption peak, enterprises have launched vibrant marketing activities to seize sales opportunities, significantly boosting customer flow. However, the popularity index still fell by 34.70 points year-on-year, indicating a noticeable trend towards online traffic, making it increasingly difficult for stores to gather popularity.

This month, the sub-index with the largest month-on-month decline is the "manager confidence index," a leading indicator with a value of 107.54, down by 52.36 points month-on-month and down by 4.59 points year-on-year. As the market is set to enter the traditional winter off-season, it is reasonable that the current growth trend of "golden September and silver October" is difficult to maintain, leading to a natural fall in the manager confidence index. According to the PMI data released by the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the PMI for October was 50.1%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range after five months, indicating that with the strong introduction of a package of incremental policies and the gradual realization of existing policy effects, China's economy is showing initial signs of stabilization, and corporate confidence has been boosted.

Again, it is recommended that building materials and home furnishings companies profoundly understand the strategic intent of the "Two News" (large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods replacement) policy, especially the "replacement" policy. The benefits for companies are not only driven by "depreciation for replacement" enhancing company marketing, but also promote consumption upgrade and facilitate long-term green and low-carbon development. Companies should seize the current trends for higher-end, more asia vets, more eco-friendly concept, and more personalized needs through the four aspects of "able to consume, willing to consume, convenient to consume, and daring to consume," effectively enhancing the new quality productivity of the industry.