投资建议：公司坚持稳健经营，BC 产品持续突破，具备差异化发展潜力。考虑到产业链价格下降因素，预计公司2024-2026 年分别实现营收866.34 亿元、1083.96 亿元和1284.50 亿元，实现归母净利润分别为-45.2 亿元、30.66亿元和51.53 亿元，同比增长-142.0%、167.8%、68.1%。2025-2026 年对应EPS 分别为0.40、0.68 元，当前股价对应的2025-2026 年PE 倍数分别为47.5X、28.3X，维持“买入”评级。Incident: On October 30, the company released its 2024 three-quarter report. During the reporting period, the company achieved revenue of 58.593 billion yuan, or -37.73% year on year; net profit due to mother -6.505 billion yuan, -155.62% year on year, net profit not returned to mother -6.488 billion yuan, or -156.35% year-on-year. 24Q3 achieved revenue of 20.064 billion yuan in a single quarter, -3.79% year-on-year; net profit to mother -1.261 billion yuan, or -150.14% year-on-year, reducing losses month-on-month.
Losses narrowed markedly in the single quarter. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved 82.80 GW of silicon wafers and 55.39 GW of battery modules, of which 38.37 GW of silicon wafers were shipped in a single quarter in 24Q3 and 21.39 GW of battery modules, all of which increased month-on-month. In terms of profitability, the 24Q3 company's gross profit margin and net margin were 8.60% and -6.37% respectively, +1.99pct and +7.57pct, respectively. The company's profit recovered in the third quarter, and industrial chain prices are expected to rise steadily; losses in the third quarter were mainly due to loss of investment income and asset depreciation. In the 24Q3 single quarter, investment income was -0.353 billion yuan, asset impairment was -0.774 billion yuan, and asset impairment was drastically reduced month-on-month.
Firmly adhere to the BC technology line and maintain product leadership. The company adheres to the BC technology line. In October, the company released Hi-Mo X10 distributed module products based on HPBC second-generation battery technology. The maximum mass production power reached 670W, and the mass production module efficiency was up to 24.8%. The relative efficiency of the company's BC products was 5% higher than TopCon, and the products continued to lead. In terms of production capacity, with the construction of BC second-generation projects and capacity transformation projects such as the first phase of the Xixian New Area with an annual output of 12.5GW batteries and 12GW batteries in Tongchuan, HPBC 2.0 products will enter mass production. It is expected that the company's BC production capacity will reach 70 GW by the end of 2025, and all domestic battery bases plan to migrate to BC products by the end of 2026. The company targets 30 GW for BC second-generation products in 2025. The company believes that BC second-generation products are expected to increase profit levels and improve the company's performance.
Investment advice: The company insists on steady operation, BC products continue to break through, and have the potential for differentiated development. Taking into account the declining price factors in the industrial chain, the company is expected to achieve revenue of 86.634 billion yuan, 108.396 billion yuan and 128.450 billion yuan respectively in 2024-2026, and realized net profit of -4.52 billion yuan, 3.066 billion yuan and 5.153 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year increases of -142.0%, 167.8%, and 68.1%. The 2025-2026 EPS is 0.40 and 0.68 yuan respectively, and the 2025-2026 PE multiples corresponding to the current stock price are 47.5X and 28.3X, respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Production capacity expansion falls short of expectations; market competition intensifies; downstream demand falls short of expectations; new technology development progress falls short of expectations, etc.
