Report summary:
Leading the wave of all-in-one energy storage machines, the traditional markets are Germany/Czech Republic, etc., and the core benefits are European household storage dividends in 2021-2022. Aero Energy was founded in 2012. The first product is a high-voltage three-phase inverter. The company is leading the industry with forward-looking bets on energy storage, energy storage inverter+battery pack all-in-one machine. The current product matrix is diversified, covering single-phase and three-phase high and low voltage products. The net profit of Aero in 2021/2022/2023 was 0.63/ 11.34/ 1.065 billion yuan, respectively, +90.2%/1703.7%/-6.1%. The main benefits of Aero Energy's traditional markets are Germany, the Czech Republic, etc., with core European dividends.
Channel+R&D+market acumen forms the bottom alpha of Aero, which is expected to continue to tap into emerging markets. (1) On the channel side, Aero binds top distributors in Germany and the Czech Republic. It has cooperated with leading Czech dealer GBC for five years. The Solar X brand ranked first on the GBC website, and cooperated with KRANNICH, one of Germany's top three energy storage dealers for 8 years; (2) Aero will account for 35.8% of technicians in 2023, leading the entire industry with doctorates and masters; (3) We have sorted out the Aero product development cycle for about one year, so Aero Energy was able to seize the opportunity of the Asian and African market to launch a low-voltage single-phase inverter/low-voltage battery pack in 2024 Take the lead in launching Aelio series and TRENA series industrial and commercial optical storage systems, as well as 300-350kw ground-level grid-connected inverters to explore new growth curves.
The underlying logic of emerging markets? Southeast Asia and the like can still be expected in 2025. (1) Electricity prices, the degree of grid breakdown, subsidies, per capita GDP, etc. are the core factors affecting household storage ceilings in a single region; (2) Based on multi-dimensional portrayals, we believe that the Ukrainian market is still in an explosion stage, and the Philippines, Myanmar and other places are expected to grow further; (3) The Philippine weak grid+high electricity prices, the three major power grids cannot connect to many islands, and the 24M6/M7 87.5% trading range has experienced power outages of more than 3,000 megawatts. Currently, electricity prices are as high as 1.5 yuan/degree, and the current household storage recovery cycle is less than 4 years; (4) The Myanmar war caused the power grid to be paralyzed, 77% The above power plants and power grids were damaged by armed forces. Myanmar's power grid was hit 229 times in 2021-2023. The electricity supply was insufficient by 1/2 of the demand, and the economy of optical storage was better than diesel generators.
European commercial and commercial reserves can be expected, and Allo is benefiting from industry dividends with new TRENA products. (1) Along with the increase in the share of new energy sources, negative electricity prices are frequent in Europe. According to EPEX, the German market recently experienced 301 negative electricity prices in 2023, doubling from month to month, and the intensity of commercial and commercial savings arbitrage increased. (2) Negative electricity prices mean that traditional peak-modulation and frequency modulation resources are not working, and the advantages of energy storage and frequency modulation are evident. 2MW/4MWh of energy storage can generate about 175,000 EURO/MW/ year of revenue every year at PICASSO.
Profit forecast: European household savings are growing steadily, emerging markets such as Southeast Asia are blooming, and new products such as industrial and commercial storage create a second curve. We estimate that Aero Energy's operating income in 2024-2026 was 32.55/ 4.34/5.23 billion yuan, and the net profit achieved in 2024-2026 was 3.45/ 0.559/0.727 billion yuan corresponding to PE 30.88/ 19.05/ 14.65, respectively. The net profit per share for 2025E was 23 times PE valuation, corresponding to a target price of 80 yuan. The first coverage gave it a “buy” rating.
Risk Warning: Emerging Markets/European Inventory/Price War Risks; Profit Forecasts and Valuations Fall short of Expectations
Comment(0)
Reason For Report