A high-quality “national team” based on variety shows, complementing the series and long video industry. The company is the leading long-video platform with a scarce state-owned background. Its core business is the Mango TV long video platform. 1) Looking at the content system, the company's ability to create variety shows is outstanding, and series need to be broken through; 2) Looking at the monetization model, in addition to the traditional advertising and membership monetization of long videos, it also relies on Hunan Radio and Television Group having both IPTV and OTT business licenses to have scarce large-screen businesses, while new businesses such as script killing and Xiaomang e-commerce continue to drive savings; 3) the revenue structure includes Mango TV (24H1 accounts ~ 71%), e-commerce (~ 19%), and content production (~ 9%). Among them, Mango TV's core owner is Mao Mao The interest rate is the highest.

Content side: Variety continues to lead, series gain strength, and we look forward to future breakthroughs. 1) Variety: Relying on a stable team and a mature variety production system, the company has the ability to output stable and high-quality variety content. On the one hand, the company has created many popular variety shows in the past (including “Enchanted”, “Sing and Dance”, etc.), and has verified the company's industrialized production capacity of high-quality variety shows since then; on the other hand, the company's high-quality new products have been launched one after another, and the variety advantage continues to be maintained; 2) Series: After three years of layout, the number of popular variety shows has increased significantly, and some popular content has already been released (including “Go to a Windy Place” and “You Are My Fireworks””). Looking ahead, “Lucky Family” is expected to be launched in 24Q4. “National Color Fanghua” and “Five Blessings at the Door” are expected to become major dramas at the beginning of '25. The product reserves are abundant and there is a lot of short-term catalytic activity. It is recommended to pay close attention to the series's breakthroughs.

Monetization side: The inflection point in performance is approaching, and we look forward to the reversal of the difficult situation in the future. 1) Members: I am optimistic that the subsequent member revenue growth model will be healthier. In addition to the previous B-side drive+low price promotion impulse, the company is currently actively achieving growth through multiple endogenous sources (including B-side 88VIP/dynamic zone mango card channel cooperation, increased member value-added services, drama endogenous drive, etc.). The ARPPU value has increased significantly. It is expected that after the release of subsequent series reserves, it will enter a healthier stage of “B+C two-way pull” and “volume and price rise”; 2) Advertisement: The continuous recovery of advertising and content innovation is expected to continue in 25 years Let's operate at an inflection point; 3) Operator: The pressure was clearly affected by the policy in '24, but the high base pressure has basically been released since '25, and the growth rate of this business is expected to return to healthy again.

Cultural outings are underway, and we are looking forward to new growth points. The company is currently actively implementing the “Mango Overseas 2024 Action Plan” and the Mango TV International App “Multiplication Plan”. According to Securities Times News, the current number of overseas downloads of the Mango TV International App has risen from 0.13 billion last year to 0.21 billion, with Europe and the US accounting for 5.3% of new downloads, and the annual doubling plan is expected to be successfully realized.

Investment advice: We believe that the fundamentals of Mango have basically bottomed out in the short term. We are optimistic about the company's basic orientation and valuation restoration in the long term. However, considering that short-term advertising+operator business is under certain pressure, we maintain our 24-26 expectations. We expect net profit to the mother for 24-26 to be 1.722 billion/1.973 billion/2.146 billion, respectively, or -52%/+15%/+9% compared to the same period. As a scarce video platform for state-owned enterprises, the company's core business is operating steadily, and new businesses are still being explored. We maintain our previous valuation method. According to the 25-year PE valuation of 30X, market capitalization of 59.2 billion yuan, and target price of 31.65 yuan/share, we maintain a “recommended” rating.

Risk warning: risk of macroeconomic recovery falling short of expectations, uncertainty in content production and procurement, risk of tightening policy regulations