25 年剧综储备丰富，看好产品周期向上。湖南卫视、芒果TV 全面升级内容团队“赛道主理人”机制，打通内容与商业化之间的通路，通过“剧情式广告”“IP 衍生剧综”“后链路”等融合创新产品赋能内容传播。1）综艺：披露数量超100 部，公司表示将保持60%综N 代+40%新综结构。一方面，经典综N 代继续推出，包括《歌手2025》、《乘风2025》、《披荆斩棘5》等，且在内容模式上积极寻求创新，例如姐姐将启动户外录制模式；另一方面，新综迭出，既包括头部IP 衍生综艺（e.g.:名侦探的假期），也包括全新IP 新综（e.g.: 《登录可爱岛》、《决逗喜乐城》）等，看好公司综艺优势保持。2）剧集：储备丰富，披露超100 部，包含古装、现代、悬疑等各类型，合作余飞、高群书等知名编剧/影视制作人，包括大剧《好运家》《国色芳华》《五福临门》等，看好明年剧集产能释放。Matters:
On November 12, the 2025 Mango Ecological Circle Expansion Conference was held in Changsha. The new six Mango platforms composed of Hunan TV, Mango TV, Golden Eagle Cartoon, Xiaomang, Mountain and Sea, and Fengmang were assembled and unveiled for the first time. At the conference, the company released the 2025 film list, including 100+ series, 100+ variety shows, 120+ micro-drama summaries, parties, documentaries, etc.
Commentary:
The 25-year drama reserve is rich, and I am optimistic that the product cycle will improve. Hunan TV and Mango TV have fully upgraded the content team's “track manager” mechanism to open up channels between content and commercialization, and enable content dissemination through integrated innovative products such as “storyline advertising,” “IP-derived dramas,” and “backlinks.” 1) Variety: The number of disclosures exceeded 100, and the company said it will maintain a 60% comprehensive N generation +40% new comprehensive structure. On the one hand, Classic Synthesis continues to be launched, including “Singer 2025,” “Ride the Wind 2025,” and “Cross the Thief 5,” and is actively seeking innovation in content models, such as the sister will launch an outdoor recording mode; on the other hand, new integrations include not only head-IP-derived variety shows (e.g.: Detective's Vacation), but also new IPs (e.g., “Log in to Kawai Island”, “Daredevil Joy City”), etc., so I'm optimistic that the company will maintain its variety advantage. 2) Series: Abundant reserves, showing more than 100 titles, including costumes, modernity, suspense, etc., and collaborating with famous screenplayers/film producers such as Yu Fei and Gao Qunshu, including the big dramas “Lucky Family”, “National Color Fanghua”, and “Five Blessings at the Door”, etc., and is optimistic about the release of production capacity for next year's series.
The share of dramas is rising, and an inflection point in business is imminent. 1) On the content side: In the first three quarters of 2024, Yunhe data showed that Mango occupied 9 seats in the Taiwan General and Internet Top 20. According to Yunhe data, as of 11.5, the average daily effective broadcast of 24H2 series on the Long Video Platform fell 15% month-on-month, while Mango increased 24% month-on-month. 2) On the monetization side: With abundant storyline reserves, I am optimistic about next year's advertising recovery & membership breakthroughs. Furthermore, the operator business is expected to be nearing the end of high base pressure next year, which is expected to usher in an inflection point in business.
Cultural outings are underway, and we are looking forward to new growth points. The company is currently actively implementing the “Mango Overseas 2024 Action Plan” and the Mango TV International App “Multiplication Plan”. According to the Securities Times Network news, the current number of overseas downloads of the Mango TV international app has risen from 0.13 billion last year to 0.21 billion, with Europe and the US accounting for 5.3% of new downloads, and the full-year doubling plan is expected to be successfully realized.
Investment advice: We believe that the fundamentals of Mango have basically bottomed out in the short term. The company is rich in reserves and is waiting for the inflection point to arrive. We are optimistic about the company's basic orientation and valuation restoration in the long term. We maintain our previous 24-26 expectations, and expect net profit to return to mother for 24-26 to be 1.722 billion/1.973 billion/2.146 billion, respectively, -52%/+15%/+9% compared to the same period last year. As a scarce video platform for state-owned enterprises, the company's core business is operating steadily, and new businesses are still being explored. We maintain our previous valuation method. According to the 25-year PE valuation of 30X, a market capitalization of 59.2 billion yuan, and a target price of 31.65 yuan/share, we maintain a “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: The broadcast situation after the content was launched fell short of expectations, the policy regulation of the industry became stricter, and the pace of project launch was uncertain
