公司2024Q3 销量86165 台，同比+94.4%，环比+61.7%，在新势力品牌销量排名中持续位列前3，9 月最后一周单周销量破万，排名提升至新势力第2。此外，2024Q3 销量结构中，C 系列占比约78.3%，环比+3.7pct，销量结构进一步向高价值车型集中。得益于C 系列占比提升及高价值车型C16 放量，2024Q3 公司ASP 达11.4 万元，环比提升1.4 万元。Report summary
Incident: LEAPMOTOR released its financial report for the third quarter of 2024:24Q3 achieved revenue of 9.86 billion yuan, +74.3% year over year and +83.9% month on month, a significant increase. The net loss of 2024Q3 was 0.69 billion yuan, which was a sharp contraction from the same period last year. Operating cash flow was $1.96 billion; free cash flow was $1.32 billion.
Sales have stabilized in the first tier of new forces, and product structure has been improved
The company sold 86,165 units in 2024Q3, +94.4% year-on-year and +61.7% month-on-month. It continued to rank in the top 3 in the sales rankings of new power brands. In the last week of September, the weekly sales volume exceeded 10,000, and the ranking rose to 2nd place among new forces. Furthermore, in the 2024Q3 sales structure, the C series accounted for about 78.3%, +3.7 pct compared to the previous month, and the sales structure was further concentrated on high-value models. Thanks to the increased share of the C series and the volume of the high-value model C16, the 2024Q3 company's ASP reached 0.114 million yuan, an increase of 0.014 million yuan over the previous month.
24Q3 gross margin improved dramatically, and the gross margin target 2024Q3 gross margin will be exceeded throughout the year, reaching 8.1%, +6.9pct year over year, and +5.3 pct month-on-month. Significant improvements over the same period are mainly due to (1) product portfolio optimization: the overall proportion of the C series continued to increase in 24Q3. In addition, the C16 medium and high components accounted for about 97%, and the proportion of fully equipped optional packages was about 95%, which had a driving effect on gross margin; (2) ongoing cost management work: such as continuing to strengthen vertical integration in the supply chain; (3) the scale effect brought about by the increase in sales volume. The average gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 4.8%. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, gross margin is expected to maintain an upward trend as sales increase and product structure continues to be optimized, and is expected to exceed the original annual gross margin target.
Sales of the T03 and C10 began in Europe at the end of September. The B10 will enter the global market in 2025. Cooperation with Stellantis is progressing smoothly. The T03 and C10 models were officially launched in Europe on September 24, 2024.
By the end of October 2024, 339 dealer stores have been opened in Europe. Zero Run International will gradually expand into the Asia Pacific, Middle East, Africa, and South American markets, and the number of channels is expected to reach more than 500 by 2025. Furthermore, the B10, the first global model of the company's B platform, debuted globally at the Paris Motor Show on October 14 and will be launched to the global market in 2025. The B platform is expected to become a new driving force for the company's domestic and foreign sales growth in 2025.
Profit forecast: Domestic: The company's domestic gross margin improved significantly and is expected to continue. The launch of the B-platform model in '25 may further drive sales growth. Overseas: Sales have officially started in the European market, and with cooperation with Stellantis, it may be possible to quickly open up the market.
We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 32.5/64.6/88.2 billion yuan, with growth rates of +94.3%/+98.6%/+36.5%, respectively; net profit to mother of -3.405/0.098/2.086 billion yuan, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning events: competition in the domestic new energy market intensifies, overseas travel progress falls short of expectations, overseas tariff risks, etc.