产品销售保持良好态势，调高2024E 收入预期。2024 年前三季度实现收入13.8 亿元，同比增长23.6%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润1.3 亿元，实现扭亏。我们认为公司存量产品保持快速放量节奏，存量大品类奈达铂及右雷佐生未进第十批集采，我们调高2024E 收入预期至17.9 亿元（原16.6 亿元）。Description of the event
On October 31, 2024, Osecon released its report for the third quarter of 2024: achieved revenue of 1.38 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 23.6% over the previous year; achieved net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 0.13 billion yuan, reversing losses. 2024Q3's revenue in a single quarter was 0.46 billion yuan, up 13.2% year on year; net profit to mother was 0.051 billion yuan, up from month to month.
Incident comments
Product sales maintained a positive trend and raised 2024E revenue expectations. In the first three quarters of 2024, revenue of 1.38 billion yuan was achieved, an increase of 23.6% over the previous year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 0.13 billion yuan, and losses were reversed. We believe that the company's stock products will maintain a rapid pace of release. The large stock categories of nedabroc and durezosene were not collected in the tenth batch, and we raised our revenue forecast for 2024E to 1.79 billion yuan (originally 1.66 billion yuan).
Cash flow is healthy, similar to when transformation is underway. As of September 30, 2024, the company's cash on hand exceeded 2 billion yuan. R&D investment in the first three quarters was drastically reduced to 0.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 60.0%, mainly because some new drugs have completed critical clinical research and development stages with large R&D investments, and there is no need to continue large-scale R&D investment. The innovative drug pipeline is progressing smoothly. Among them, ASK120067 is already in the NDA stage, and ASKC109 and ASKB589 are both in phase 3. We expect that the three innovative drugs ASK120067, ASKC109, and ASKB589 may be approved year by year in the next 2-3 years. The pace is good to ensure a healthy forward cash flow.
The clinical development of ophthalmic drugs is progressing steadily, and cytokine therapy provides valuation imagination. ASKG712: The world's second VEGF/ANG2 ophthalmology drug to enter clinical stage after Roche Faricimab. The ASKG712 treatment for neovasal age-related macular degeneration (NaMD) was completed in the first half of 2024, and clinical phase IIa studies are being carried out. The ASKG712 treatment for diabetic macular edema (DME) has now completed a phase I clinical study. By reducing the frequency of administration, the main clinical advantage of ASKG712 may be patient compliance; ASKG315 (IL-15) and ASKG915 (PD-1/IL-15) are provided by the company's SmartKine? Technology platform incubation enables drugs to exist in the form of complete precursors in normal system circulation and be activated at specific points in the tumor microenvironment. ASKG315 (IL-15) and PD-1 have entered phase 1 clinical trials, and ASKG915 has entered phase 1 clinical trials in China and the US. The clinical progress is at the first level in China and has potential for BIC.
Profit forecast and investment advice: The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 0.196 billion yuan, 0.246 billion yuan and 0.367 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding EPS of 0.21 yuan, 0.27 yuan and 0.40 yuan, respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning
1. Pharmaceutical industry policy risks;
2. Risk of sales falling short of expectations;
3. Risk of failure in the development of new drugs.
