Description of the event
Aero Energy released its 2024 three-quarter report. The first three quarters of 2024 achieved revenue of 2.407 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.93%; of these, 2024Q3 achieved revenue of 0.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 84.24%; among them, achieved revenue of 0.823 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.39%, a year-on-year decrease of 8.45%; and net profit to mother of 0.057 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.96%, a year-on-year decrease of 16.77%.
Incident comments
The company's Q3 revenue declined slightly month-on-month, possibly due to: 1) The typhoon and other factors affecting the pace of delivery confirmation. We expect the company's Q3 shipment volume to exceed current revenue. 2) Demand momentum in emerging markets such as non-European and American overseas and Ukraine has gradually declined, affected by factors such as trade policies and the rainy season in India, Pakistan and Southeast Asia. 3) Effects of the July-August summer vacation in Europe. The prices and profitability of the company's various products are expected to remain relatively stable.
According to other financial data, the company's expense ratio during the Q3 period was 28.2%, a drop of 2.2 pct. Of these, R&D expenses were 0.15 billion, a record high. Bills payable and accounts payable at the end of Q3 were 1.41 billion, an increase of 18% and a record high, indicating that the company's order trend was good and active in preparing goods. Furthermore, in Q3, the company experienced asset impairment losses of 6.23 million, and non-operating expenses of 10.14 million, which affected the release of profit on the reporting side.
Looking ahead, on the one hand, the company is expected to continue to expand its growth through new markets and products, including Pakistan, Ukraine, South Africa, etc., and new products include European commercial cabinets, household low voltage energy storage inverters, low voltage energy storage batteries, micro inverters, etc.; on the other hand, the European market, where the company has an advantage, will also be eliminated along with channel inventory, and demand will continue to pick up. In addition, the US and Japanese markets will also contribute more to the company's performance growth. Driven by multiple points, more flowering, the company's subsequent demand elasticity, and profit elasticity after enhanced scale effects are more worth looking forward to.
We expect the company to achieve a profit of 0.3 billion or 0.6 billion in 2024-2025, corresponding to PE of 37 and 16, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
1. Deterioration of the competitive landscape;
2. PV installation falls short of expectations.
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