The cryptocurrency market is still experiencing craziness!

Yesterday, the company released an almost perfect financial report, with second quarter performance exceeding market expectations. At the same time, it announced plans to repurchase Class B common shares for a total amount not exceeding 1 billion US dollars, leading several major banks to be bullish on its development prospects and raising their target prices. $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ Successfully broke through the 0.09 million dollar mark, and then continued to rise, reaching a highest of 93,483 dollars, setting a new historical high. Although there has been a slight pullback now, it still remains above 91,000 dollars. It is worth noting that bitcoin has recently surpassed Meta, silver, and Saudi Aramco, becoming the 7th largest mainstream asset in the world.

CoinShares research director James Butterfill pointed out that considering the positive political momentum, social media hype, ongoing interest rate cuts, and the prospect of bitcoin becoming a strategic reserve asset for the USA, its price may rise further. Currently, most institutions including Bernstein believe that bitcoin will reach 0.2 million dollars by the end of 2025.

Driven by the news of Trump’s victory, the market is increasingly optimistic about bitcoin's future. Besides the election, what other factors are driving the rise of bitcoin? When is the best time to buy bitcoin? Apart from bitcoin, what other assets can be participated in? Below is a detailed analysis for mooers.

Besides the election, what other factors are driving the rise of bitcoin?

• Including bitcoin in national reserves may become a trend.

As the value of bitcoin continues to rise, more and more countries are beginning to pay attention to and value this crypto asset, with Bhutan and El Salvador being typical examples.

Crypto analyst PlanB has indicated that starting in March 2025, countries like Bhutan, Argentina, and Dubai are expected to successively adopt bitcoin as legal tender, while in April, under Trump's push, the usa will also launch its bitcoin strategy reserve. Other countries will follow suit, especially non-EU countries will join in this trend.

However, billionaire executive Michael Novogratz of crypto investment firm Galaxy Digital believes that the likelihood of Trump including bitcoin in the usa strategic reserve is low. But he stated that if the usa really establishes a bitcoin strategic reserve, the price of bitcoin would soar to 0.5 million dollars.

• Institutions are still increasing shareholding.

Gemini co-founder emphasizes that the driving force behind bitcoin's rise comes from stable etf demand, rather than individual investor sentiment. This provides solid momentum for the rise, and everything is just beginning.

In fact, the recent rebound has also led to a significant inflow of funds into us spot etf, with assets under management increasing by 6.8 billion dollars in the past 30 days. This growth exceeds the increase of 7.6 billion dollars in cme futures open contracts, indicating that investors clearly prefer to invest in spot through etf.

The correlation between etf inflow and cme open contracts highlights the dominance of the spot holding strategy. However, stronger etf demand highlights the shift towards direct spot exposure during this market rally.

Meanwhile, large holders of bitcoins. $MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$ Have once again made a move to buy over 2 billion dollars worth of bitcoin. It is reported that as of November 10, the company's holdings of spot bitcoin.return on investmentHave already exceeded 100%. Currently, the company has accumulated 279,420 bitcoins.

So when is the best time to buy bitcoin?

Investors can speculate when to buy bitcoin at a better cost-performance ratio based on mining costs, as mining costs or building the bottom price of bitcoin. In other words, it's about buying at the "bottom" of miners.

According to on-chain data analyst Murphy, mining costs largely affect the "lower limit" of bitcoin prices. The logic here is not that miners will sell or not sell their holdings at cost price, but rather revolves around the psychological factors on the market demand side.

When the price of bitcoin is below the mining cost, investors will find that buying bitcoin in the secondary market is much more cost-effective than spending millions in capital and effort to mine bitcoin. This creates a mentality of 'getting a bargain', benefiting from the miners and thereby triggering greater market demand.

It's like buying something; when we find that the production cost of an item is equal to or even higher than its price, we feel more 'at ease' purchasing it, believing we've gotten a good deal (no loss in buying and no deception).

Secondly, when the price of bitcoin falls to a certain extent, miners may withdraw some hash power because they cannot cover costs, leading to a decrease in mining difficulty. A drop in difficulty reduces mining costs, which dampens market demand as the perception of 'getting a bargain' diminishes, causing prices to continue to drop and hash power to withdraw further... this spirals into a death spiral. Strong hash power is crucial for the decentralization and system security of bitcoin. In extreme cases, if there are no miners, mining farms collapse, machines cannot be sold, or even asset security is threatened, this does not align with anyone's interests.

Therefore, the mining cost will definitely impact the lower limit of Bitcoin's price under certain conditions.

According to MacroMicro data, the current mining cost for each bitcoin is $82,428.

Looking back at the historical data, if one had consistently bought bitcoin near the mining cost line, it would be equivalent to acquiring bitcoin at a cost even lower than that of miners. From a medium to long-term perspective, the certainty of obtaining profits is greater than the uncertainty of bearing risks.

Besides bitcoin, which other assets can participate in the 'crypto circle carnival'?

Huayuan Securities points out that the main upward wave of the crypto bull market has already arrived. Mining companies that benefit from the crypto market bull run, have solid balance sheets, and comprehensive hash power growth plans are expected to welcome a new market cycle. It is also recommended to pay attention to exchange symbols and hoarding symbols that benefit from the crypto bull market.

Futu has organized relevant concept stocks and etfs in the hk and usa stock markets for mooers' reference. This includes:

Holding stocks $MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$ 、 $MEITU (01357.HK)$ 、 $BOYAA (00434.HK)$ ；

Cryptocurrency exchange $Coinbase (COIN.US)$ 、 $OSL GROUP (00863.HK)$ ；

Mining stocks $MARA Holdings (MARA.US)$ 、 $CleanSpark (CLSK.US)$ 、 $Riot Platforms (RIOT.US)$ Wait;

In addition, there are a large number of etfs in the Hong Kong stock market that are worth paying attention to, including $ChinaAMC Bitcoin ETF (03042.HK)$ 、 $Harvest Bitcoin Spot ETF (03439.HK)$ 、 $Bosera HashKey Bitcoin ETF (03008.HK)$ 、 $Samsung Bitcoin Futures Active ETF (03135.HK)$ 、 $CSOP Bitcoin Futures ETF (03066.HK)$ Wait a moment.

Editor/Somer