Nevro Corp. (NYSE:NVRO) investors will be delighted, with the company turning in some strong numbers with its latest results. Revenues and losses per share were both better than expected, with revenues of US$97m leading estimates by 4.2%. Statutory losses were smaller than the analystsexpected, coming in at US$0.41 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the 15 analysts covering Nevro provided consensus estimates of US$407.2m revenue in 2025, which would reflect a perceptible 2.9% decline over the past 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$2.58 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$411.9m and losses of US$2.57 per share in 2025.
As a result there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$7.05, implying that the business is trading roughly in line with expectations despite ongoing losses. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Nevro analyst has a price target of US$13.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$4.00. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 2.3% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 2.9% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 8.3% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Nevro is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$7.05, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Nevro going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for Nevro that we have uncovered.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
