Core views

The company released its 2024 three-quarter report. 2024Q1-Q3 achieved operating income of 90.6.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.06%, and achieved net profit of 0.685 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.55%. In a single quarter, the 2024Q3 company achieved operating income of 3.788 billion yuan, an increase of 5.93% year-on-year, and achieved net profit to mother of 0.251 billion yuan, an increase of 17.56% year-on-year. Fan shipments are expected to increase in the third quarter. 2024Q3's gross profit margin was 14.85%, up 0.62 percentage points from month to month, and contract debt was 5.067 billion yuan, up 50% year on year. The company's expense ratio for the 2024Q3 period was 11.48%, up 1 pct month on month, down 4.8 pct year on year, sales expense ratio decreased 3.5 pct year on year, and R&D expenses rate decreased 2.3 pct year on year. The company's expenses were well controlled, and the cost ratio for the period decreased significantly year on year.

occurrences

Sany Heavy Energy released its 2024 three-quarter report. 2024Q1-Q3 achieved operating income of 9.068 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.06%, achieved net profit of 0.685 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.55%, and realized net profit deducted from non-mother 0.612 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.61%.

The 2024Q3 company achieved operating income of 3.788 billion yuan in a single quarter, up 5.93% year on year, up 6.61% month on month, and achieved net profit of 0.251 billion yuan, up 17.56% year on year, up 49.40% month on month, and realized net profit without return to mother of 0.224 billion yuan, up 228.69% year on year and 48.34% month on month.

Brief review

The company's Q1-Q3 revenue increased year-on-year, mainly due to increased installed capacity, improved competitiveness of fan products, and year-on-year increase in fan sales.

Based on the company's revenue and the unit price of industry products, the company's Q3 shipments are expected to increase year-on-month. Q3 The company's net profit without return to mother was 0.251 billion yuan, up 229.41% year on year and 48.34% month on month. It was mainly due to the increase in comprehensive gross margin in the current period, the impact of the company's lower cost ratio and better results in cost control. The cost ratio declined significantly year-on-year during the period.

The fan's gross profit margin and net profit continued to improve, and it is still in the first tier. In terms of profitability, 2024Q3's gross profit margin was 14.85%, up 0.62 percentage points from month to month, which was basically the same; 2024Q3 company's net profit margin was 6.63%, up 1.91 percentage points from month to month, up 0.65 percentage points year on year. The company's profitability is still in the first tier, and the cost advantage is remarkable.

The fee rate has declined markedly. The 2024Q3 company's cost rate for the period was 11.48%, up 1 pct from month to month, down 4.8 pct year on year, sales expenses decreased 3.5 pct year on year, and R&D expenses rate decreased 2.3 pct year on year. The company's expenses were well controlled, and the cost ratio for the period decreased significantly year on year.

The company's contractual liabilities increased month-on-month. As of the end of September, the company's contract debt was 5.067 billion yuan, an increase of 36% over the previous year and an increase of 50% over the previous year. This is expected to be an increase in advance payments due to the increase in the company's orders.

Profit forecast: The company is expected to achieve operating income of 16.07, 23.33, and 25.54 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, and achieve net profit of 2.13, 2.62, and 3.15 billion yuan, corresponding PE of 16.7, 13.6, and 11.3 times, respectively, maintaining an “increase in holdings” rating.

Risk warning

1. Risk of fluctuations in the international macroeconomic situation. There is uncertainty about the operation of the global economy, and the company faces certain challenges in developing overseas business.

2. Increased competition in the industry. The fan industry has relatively overcapacity, and competition in the industry is fierce. Fan prices have continued to drop sharply since 2021. If industry competition intensifies further, it may damage the company's profits.

3. Risk of component price fluctuations. The company procures castings, spindles, gearboxes, etc. from upstream raw materials. Fluctuating prices of upstream raw materials will affect the company's profit level.

4. The risk of increased competition in the offshore fan business. Currently, there are relatively few participants in the sea wind fan market. As more competitors enter, competition in the sea wind fan industry is likely to intensify.