煤炭：量增对冲价减，盈利环比相对平稳。1）产销：受大海则&东露天煤矿积极发挥核增产能优势以及Q3 贸易煤或有增加影响，三季度公司商品煤产销均有提升。24Q1~3 公司实现自产商品煤产量10231 万吨，同比+114 万吨（+1.1%）；商品煤销量20551 万吨，同比-929 万吨（-4.3%），自产商品煤销量10038 万吨，同比+71 万吨（+0.7%），买断贸易煤销量10114 万吨，同比-826 万吨（-7.6%）。单三季度看，公司实现商品煤产量3581万吨，同比+176 万吨（+5.2%），环比+204 万吨（+6.0%）；实现商品煤销量7196 万吨，同比+382 万吨（+5.6%），环比+228 万吨（+3.3%），其中，自产商品煤销量3419 万吨，同比-63 万吨（-1.8%），环比+31 万吨（+0.9%）。2）价格：Q3 煤炭均价环比延续回落。Description of the event
The company released its 2024 three-quarter report: 24Q1-3, the company achieved net profit of 14.61 billion yuan (-12.4%); in the third quarter of a year, the company achieved net profit of 4.83 billion yuan to mother, -0.03 billion yuan (-0.6%) year on year, and +0.01 billion yuan (+0.2%) month on month.
Incident comments
Coal: Volume increases hedge price decreases, and profits are relatively stable month-on-month. 1) Production and marketing: The company's commercial coal production and sales increased in the third quarter due to the active use of the Daze & East Open Pit Coal Mine's advantages in increasing nuclear production capacity and the possible increase in Q3 trade coal. The 24Q1-3 company achieved production of 102.31 million tons of self-produced commercial coal, +1.14 million tons (+1.1%); commercial coal sales volume was 205.51 million tons, -9.29 million tons (-4.3%) year on year, sales of 100.38 million tons of self-produced commercial coal, +0.71 million tons (+0.7%) year on year, sales of 101.14 million tons of purchased trade coal, -8.26 million tons year on year (-8.26 million tons) year on year ( -7.6%). Looking at the third quarter of the single quarter, the company achieved commercial coal production of 35.81 million tons, +1.76 million tons (+5.2%), and +2.04 million tons (+6.0%); achieved commercial coal sales of 71.96 million tons, +3.82 million tons (+5.6%) year on year, and +2.28 million tons (+3.3%) month on month, of which sales of self-produced commercial coal were 34.19 million tons, -0.63 million tons ( -1.8%), +0.31 million tons (+0.9%) month-on-month. 2) Price: In Q3, the average price of coal continued to decline month-on-month.
From 24Q1 to 3, the price of the company's own coal was 571 yuan/ton, -32 yuan/ton (-5.3%) year-on-year. Looking at the third quarter of a year, the company's self-produced coal sold for 546 yuan/ton, -18 yuan/ton (-3.2%), and -25 yuan/ton (-4.3%). By type of coal, self-produced thermal coal sold for 488 yuan/ton, -15 yuan/ton (-3.0%), -21 yuan/ton (-4.0%); self-produced coking coal sold for 1,176 yuan/ton, year-on-year, -90 yuan/ton (-7.1%), month-on-month (-5.0%). 3) Costs: Costs decreased month-on-month or were mainly affected by the year-on-year reduction in sporadic engineering and auxiliary expenses related to production. The sales cost of 24Q1 to 3 is 287 yuan/ton, or -8 yuan/ton (-2.8%). Looking at the cost breakdown structure, depreciation and amortization is -5.6 yuan/ton (-11%) year on year, transportation and port expenses -4.7 yuan/ton (-7.6%) year on year, and labor costs +8.0 yuan/ton (+17.7%) year on year. Looking at the third quarter of a single quarter, the sales cost of the company's own tons of coal was 286 yuan/ton, -27 yuan/ton (-8.6%) year-on-year, and -9 yuan/ton (-3.0%) month-on-month.
4) Profit: Cost improvement, coal prices continued to fall, and profit was relatively stable month-on-month. Gross profit of 24Q1-3 tons of self-produced coal was 284 yuan/ton, -24 yuan/ton (-7.7%); achieved gross profit of 28.5 billion yuan (-7.1%) from self-produced coal, -2.2 billion yuan (-7.1%); gross profit margin of self-produced coal was 49.8%, -1.3 pct year on year. Looking at the third quarter of the single quarter, gross profit of self-produced coal tons was 260 yuan/ton, +9 yuan/ton (+3.5%), and -16 yuan/ton (-5.8%); achieved gross profit of 8.9 billion yuan, +0.1 billion yuan (+1.6%) year on month, and -0.5 billion yuan (-4.9%) month on month; gross profit margin of self-produced coal was 47.6%, +3.1 pct year on year, -0.7 pct month on month.
Coal chemicals: The cost of raw coal has declined, but the prices of chemicals such as urea and ammonium nitrate have declined, and gross profit has declined year-on-year. The 24Q1-3 coal chemical business achieved gross profit of 2.33 billion yuan, -0.17 billion yuan (-6.9%) year on year; gross profit margin of 16.4%, +0.1 pct year on year.
Volume increase+dividend increases expectations, and I am optimistic about the company's valuation upward logic. The company's Libi Coal Mine (4 million tons/year) and Weizigou Coal Mine (2.4 million tons/year) are scheduled to be put into operation in 2025. The company's volume increase flexibility and high long-term coordination ratio are expected to maintain profit stability in an environment of fluctuating coal prices. Furthermore, the special dividend raised annual dividend expectations, and the company's valuation can be expected to rise.
Investment advice: The company's 2024-2026 performance is expected to be 18.55/18.73/19.17 billion yuan, PE is 9.1x/9.0x/8.8x, respectively, corresponding to the closing price on November 11, and the dividend rate is 4.2%/4.2%/4.3%, respectively, based on a 38% dividend ratio in 2023, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
1. Risk of economic pressure affecting downstream demand;
2. There is a risk of an unseasonal decline in coal prices or the coal sector due to external factors.
