Core views

In terms of sales volume of the company's anode products, Q3 is expected to ship 0.02 million tons, which is basically the same, with a year-on-month ratio. In terms of profitability, the net profit per ton in 24Q3 is expected to be about 1,000 yuan. The increase in Q3 profit per ton is mainly due to ① internal cost reduction measures, ② the price increase of some domestic low price orders, ③ the introduction of new customer orders has fixed profits. The company's anode customers cover BYD, LG New Energy, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, etc. In addition, the company is actively engaging with internationally renowned lithium battery companies such as German Volkswagen, South Korea's SKI, and Japan's Panasonic, and international market expansion is expected to further increase quantitative profit space. At the same time, the company has cooperated with Qingtao Energy to develop high-specific capacity anode materials for solid/semi-solid state batteries, and silicon-carbon anodes are expected to build a second growth curve.

occurrences

The company achieved revenue/net profit to mother/ net profit after deduction of 1.046/0.056/0.038 billion yuan in the first three quarters, -21%/-37%/-53% YoY; of these, 24Q3 achieved revenue/net profit to mother/ net profit of 0.338/0.018/0.014 billion yuan, +2%/-11%/-24% YoY, -10%/-28%/+8% YoY.

Brief review

Volume: 24Q3 shipments are expected to remain flat, up 18% year on year, and profitability improved month-on-month 1) Production capacity side: The company's current lithium battery anode production capacity is 0.09 million tons, and the production capacity under construction is 100 million tons.

2) Volume/profit margin: In terms of sales, Q3 is expected to be shipping/0.02 million tons, which is basically the same, compared to the same period. In terms of profitability, the net profit per ton in 24Q3 is expected to be about 1,000 yuan. The increase in Q3 profit per ton is mainly due to ① internal cost reduction measures, ② the price increase of some domestic low price orders, ③ the introduction of new customer orders has fixed profits

3) Customers: Stable customer resources and active development of the international market: The negative electrode business customers cover BYD, LG New Energy, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, etc. In addition, the company is actively engaging with internationally renowned lithium battery companies such as German Volkswagen, South Korea's SKI, and Japan's Panasonic, and international market expansion is expected to further enhance quantitative profit space.

4) Silicon-carbon anodes: The company has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Qingtao Energy. The two sides have agreed to reach comprehensive strategic cooperation in research and development and supply of key technologies for high specific capacity anode materials for solid/semi-solid state batteries. The specific capacity of the latest gas phase deposition silicon-carbon products will initially reach 1,900 mAh/g.

Investment advice: Net profit due to mother is expected to be 0.08, 0.092, 0.112 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, corresponding to PE 49, 42, 35 times, maintaining the “increase” rating.

Risk analysis

1) Downstream NEV production and sales fall short of expectations: The sales side may fall short of expectations due to export restrictions and weak demand; the production side may fall short of expectations due to large fluctuations in upstream raw material prices, electricity restrictions, etc., which in turn affects the company's related business shipments and profitability.

2) The decline in raw material prices exceeded expectations: On the one hand, the instability of raw material prices led to a sense of whether to buy or fall downstream, which had a certain impact on terminal demand. At the same time, price fluctuations disrupted the company's short-term performance.

3) The company's key projects fall short of expectations: As a participant in the new energy circuit, the promotion of key projects is the key to supporting revenue and profit, and is also a reflection of the company's growth. Failure to advance key projects as expected will affect current and long-term performance.