业务拆分来看，Q3 公司硅片销量13GW 左右，环比有所增长，预计单瓦亏损幅度有所收窄，主要系公司适时调整经营战略，生产、采购、销售节奏得当。组件Q3 出货20GW 左右，环比小幅增长，其中BC 组件销量预计近4GW，预计组件单瓦净利在盈亏平衡附近，受行业供需因素影响环比略有下降。电池Q3 销量1.5GW 左右。总体看，公司硅片及组件经营性业绩好于预期。Description of the event
Longji Green Energy released its 2024 three-quarter report. In the first three quarters of 2024, revenue was 58.593 billion yuan, down 37.73% year on year; net profit to mother was -6.505 billion yuan, down 155.62% year on year; among them, 2024Q3 achieved revenue of 20.064 billion yuan, down 31.87% year on year, down 3.79% month on month; net profit from mother - -1.261 billion yuan, down 150.14% year on year.
Incident comments
Looking at the business split, Q3's silicon wafer sales volume was around 13 GW, with a month-on-month increase. The loss margin for a single watt is expected to narrow. The main reason is that the company adjusted its business strategy in a timely manner, and the pace of production, procurement, and sales was appropriate. Module Q3 shipped about 20 GW, a slight increase from month to month. Among them, BC module sales are expected to be close to 4 GW, and the net profit per watt of the module is expected to be near break-even, and the net profit per watt of the module is expected to decline slightly from month to month due to industry supply and demand factors. Battery Q3 sells around 1.5GW. Overall, the company's silicon wafer and module operating performance was better than expected.
According to financial data, the company continued to increase cost control. Management expenses fell month-on-month for four consecutive quarters. Q3 was only 0.68 billion, less than half of the same period last year. At the same time, it insisted on R&D investment. Q3 R&D expenses were 0.46 billion yuan, an increase of 10%. At the end of Q3, the company held 51.1 billion in cash and continued to lead the industry. In addition, the company experienced a net investment loss of 0.35 billion in Q3, mainly due to loss of participation in silicon projects and asset impairment losses of 0.77 billion yuan, which was a significant decrease compared to Q2.
Looking ahead to the future, against the backdrop of an expected recovery in the industry, the company will rely on sufficient cash reserves and leading BC technology, marginal changes will be more positive in 2025, which is worth focusing on. At present, the company's BC technology route has entered the implementation period. This year, centralized and distributed HPBC second-generation products were released one after another. With Terry silicon, the component mass production efficiency is up to 24.8%, and the cost is expected to be basically the same as TopCon on on the battery side. As the Xixian Phase I 12.5GW BC II battery project progresses, the company's BC Generation II will accelerate in Q4, and BC shipments are expected to increase further throughout the year; BC Generation II production capacity will reach 50 GW by the end of 25, supporting the further acceleration of BC shipments. At the same time, BC market acceptance has increased. Currently, BC components have been included in domestic high-capacity procurement tenders, which is beneficial to the company's order growth. Continue to focus on recommendations.
We expect the company to achieve a net profit of 5.1 billion yuan in 2025, corresponding to PE 29 times. Maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
1. Deterioration of the competitive landscape;
2. PV installation falls short of expectations.
