毛利率同环比提升，业绩有望持续改善。24Q3 公司销售毛利率为21.27%，同/环比分别+3.29pct/+2.45pct，公司销售净利率为10.43%，同/环比分别+7.28pct/-6.02pct。24Q3 公司销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为2.18%/7.06%/4.10%/0.62% ， 同比分别+0.07pct/+0.73pct/-0.19pct/-0.52pct，环比分别+1.04pct/+1.28pct/+0.57pct/+0.07pct。我们预计公司新能源电驱动产品毛利率提升，原因有1）产品结构变化，高毛利产品如扁线电机及多合一产品销售占比提升；2）2024H2，公司新能源电驱动业务增加可摊薄固定成本；3）核心零部件自制，进一步提升电驱动产品毛利率。Incident: The company released its quarterly report for the first three quarters of '24: the company achieved revenue of 3.236 billion yuan, up 12.25% year on year; realized net profit of 0.366 billion yuan, up 274.00% year on year; realized net profit deducted from non-mother of 0.24 billion yuan, an increase of 153.35% year on year.
Comment:
Net profit to mother increased year-on-year, and has been targeted for several new energy projects. 24Q3 achieved revenue of 1.134 billion yuan, up 6.31% year on year; realized net profit of 0.118 billion yuan, up 256.62% year on year; realized net profit deducted from mother 0.081 billion yuan, up 130.51% year on year. The company accelerated the deployment of new energy sources. In 2024, the company obtained new projects such as Avita, Jikrypton, and Xiaopeng, laying the foundation for future sales growth.
Gross margin increased month-on-month, and performance is expected to continue to improve. 24Q3's gross sales margin was 21.27%, +3.29pct/month-on-month, +2.45pct, the company's net sales margin was 10.43%, and +7.28pct/-6.02pct month-on-month, respectively. The 24Q3 sales/management/R&D/finance expenses ratio was 2.18%/7.06%/4.10%/0.62%, respectively, +0.07pct/+0.73pct/-0.19pct/-0.52pct, and +1.04pct/+1.28pct/+0.57pct/+0.07pct, respectively. We expect the gross margin of the company's new energy electric drive products to increase due to 1) changes in product structure and an increase in sales share of high-margin products such as flat wire motors and all-in-one products; 2) 2024H2, the increase in the company's new energy electric drive business can dilute fixed costs; 3) self-manufacturing of core components to further increase the gross profit margin of electric drive products.
Development of roller screws with the same origin as HDM technology is expected to create a new growth curve. The company's car seat horizontal driver (HDM) and humanoid robot planetary roller screw are homologous in product technology development, and are compatible with production processes such as thread and gear processing. Samples of the company's roller screw products have been developed, and a trial production line is also under construction. It is expected that the project will be targeted by the end of 2024. The company's endogenous epitaxial rich product matrix is expected to create a second growth engine.
Investment advice: Expand the company's products endogenously and enter the field of humanoid robots. Taking into account market factors, we lowered the growth rate of some of the company's products in 2024-2026. We expect the company's revenue in 2024-2026 to be 4.58/5.2/5.79 billion yuan, corresponding to net profit of 0.45/0.4/0.46 billion yuan. The current market value corresponding to 2024-2026 PE is 19.0/21.6/18.7 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Prices of raw materials have risen, the volume of new products has fallen short of expectations, customer growth has fallen short of expectations, and sales of new energy vehicles have fallen short of expectations.
