煤化工产能扩张，有望实现业绩增长。公司煤化工产品主要包括甲醇、聚烯烃、尿素、硝铵等。截至2024 年9 月底，公司控股及参股企业的在产产能中，甲醇权益产能546 万吨/年，聚烯烃203 万吨/年，尿素175 万吨/年，硝铵40 万吨/年。煤化工产能持续扩张，在建项目包括230 万吨/年的甲醇项目及90 万吨/年聚烯烃项目。受甲醇装置计划大修等因素影响，2024Q1-Q3 煤化工产品产量为409.2 万吨，同比下降9.3%；吨成本10611 元/吨，较2023 年底下降749 元/吨；吨毛利2362 元/吨，较2023年底上升303 元/吨。Report summary:
Diversified coal giants, high dividends are expected to continue to rise. The company is a large-scale energy enterprise integrating the four main businesses of coal production and trade, coal chemicals, power generation and coal mining equipment manufacturing. In Q1-Q3 2024, due to falling coal prices, the company achieved net profit of 14.614 billion yuan to mother, a year-on-year decrease of 12.43%. The company's balance ratio continued to decline and was 47% as of the end of Q3 2024. In 2023, the company implemented a special dividend plan, and the dividend payment rate increased to 37.67%.
High and long-term balance stabilizes performance, and additional production capacity enhances profit elasticity. By the end of 2023, the company's coal resource reserves were 26.65 billion yuan, ranking second in the sector. The equity production capacity is 145.51 million tons/year, the equity production capacity under construction is 3.24 million tons/year, the Libi Coal Mine is expected to be completed by the end of 2025; the Weizigou Coal Mine is expected to be completed by the end of 2025; the Weizigou Coal Mine is expected to be put into operation in 2025. 2024Q1-Q3's self-produced commercial coal production was 93.75 million tons, up 1.3% year on year; self-produced coal accounted for no less than 80%, and there was little price fluctuation; the cost of a ton of coal was 286.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.8% year on year; gross profit per ton was 284 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton from the end of '23.
The expansion of coal chemical production capacity is expected to increase performance. The company's coal chemical products mainly include methanol, polyolefin, urea, ammonium nitrate, etc. As of the end of September 2024, of the production capacity of the company's controlling and participating companies, methanol equity production capacity was 5.46 million tons/year, polyolefin 2.03 million tons/year, urea 1.75 million tons/year, and ammonium nitrate 0.4 million tons/year. Coal chemical production capacity continues to expand. Projects under construction include 2.3 million tons/year methanol project and 0.9 million tons/year polyolefin project. Affected by factors such as planned overhauls of methanol plants, the output of 2024Q1-Q3 coal chemical products was 4.092 million tons, down 9.3% year on year; the tonnage cost was 10,611 yuan/ton, down 749 yuan/ton from the end of 2023; gross profit per ton was 2,362 yuan/ton, up 303 yuan/ton from the end of 2023.
The market share of coal mining equipment is high, and coal-electricity integration is developing collaboratively. In 2020-2023, the company's coal mining equipment business grew steadily, leading the product market share. H1 declined slightly in 2024. Among them, the output value of the coal equipment business was 5.37 billion yuan, down 9.14% year on year; sales revenue was 5.63 billion yuan, down 8.29% year on year. At the same time, the company integrated the coal and electricity industry and gradually expanded its business. By the end of 2023, the production capacity under construction was 2020 MW/year, and the equity production capacity was 1,677 MW/year.
Profit forecast and investment advice: The company's total revenue for 2024-2026 is expected to be 191.3/197.4/203.8 billion yuan, respectively, -0.87%/+3.22%/+3.21%, respectively; net profit to mother is 19.6/20.6/22.1 billion yuan, respectively, +0.15%/+5.39%/+7.31% year-on-year; EPS is 1.48/1.56/1.67 yuan/share; corresponding PE is 8.56/8.12/7.57 times. Considering the company's strong ability to control costs and the continuous expansion of production capacity in businesses such as coal and coal mine equipment manufacturing, the company's performance is expected to continue to increase. The first coverage gives a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the rise in coal prices falls short of expectations; the risk of safety accidents; the commissioning of new projects falls short of expectations; the company's performance and valuation fall short of expectations.
