Jingu Finance News | HTSC released research reports stating that Xiaopeng Motors (09868) showcased internal range-extending technology at the first AI technology day, and unveiled the latest developments of flying cars and Xpeng siasun robot&automation. The starting price of P7+ is 0.1868 million yuan, lower than the market expectations of 1.9-2 million yuan. P7+ boasts high aesthetics, spacious interior, advanced configurations, and standard high-level intelligent driving. The bank expects monthly sales of 0.015 million units.
The bank stated that M03 delivered over ten thousand units for two consecutive months in September and October, significantly boosting the company's sales. After the launch of P7+, it broke the order record again, causing the official website to experience temporary shutdown due to high demand. Following the continuous monthly sales of over ten thousand units for M03 and the hot demand for P7+ after its launch, the company is expected to adhere to a strategy focusing on spacious interiors, intelligent driving, and comfortable ride, actively embracing the market of young customers who prefer technology. Looking into 2025, models like Xiaopeng G6 are expected to continuously increase the company's sales ceiling with technological enhancements like AI eagle eye intelligent driving.
Taking into account the strong sales of P7+ and M03, as well as the intense competition in the pure electric vehicle market, the company is expected to achieve total vehicle sales of 0.2/0.43/0.49 million units in 2024-2026 (previous values were 0.24/0.36/0.46 million units) and revenues of 45.3/85.6/97.7 billion yuan in the same period (previous values were 60.3/85.2/103.3 billion yuan). Using segmented valuation, 1) assigning a valuation of 111.8 billion Hong Kong dollars to Xiaopeng Motors sales business based on 1.2x 2025 EPS (previously 66.1 billion Hong Kong dollars based on 1x 2024 EPS) due to the increased probability of blockbuster cars under the high cost-performance and technology equality product strategy with M03 and P7+ already verified; 2) assigning a valuation of 40 billion Hong Kong dollars to the technology service business (previously 35 billion Hong Kong dollars) considering Xiaopeng's stronger landing and full-stack integration capabilities compared to comparable companies, raising the company's target price to 80.32 Hong Kong dollars (previously 53.48 Hong Kong dollars) and maintaining a "buy" rating.
