出口持续增长，燃油车为主，多品牌因地制宜。随着我国汽车出口量持续增长，吉利汽车的出口也表现优异，其中吉利汽车主品牌以燃油车为主，主要面向俄罗斯、中东等地，领克得益于沃尔沃的赋能以及可订阅制的灵活的经营模式，在欧洲打开市场，吉利汽车充分发挥各自的优势并在各个海外市场持续扩张版图，有望持续受益海外市场的增长性和盈利性。Report summary:
Galaxy and Thor are working together, and Geely is expected to start a new strong product cycle. Geely began a strong product cycle in the 3.0 era (2014-2019). Sales increased from 0.43 million units in 2014 to 1.5 million units in 2018, an increase of nearly 2.5 times and growth to the top independent sales. In 2021, when new energy sales exploded, Geely stalled in its new energy layout, but it only stalled for a while. With its strong technology accumulation, Geely launched the GEA architecture, the world's largest smart architecture for new energy bandwidth, and Geely Galaxy continued to gain strength in the middle and low end markets, making strategic adjustments in terms of positioning, exterior and interior, brand channels, and design ideas. In addition, Geely launched a new generation of Thor Hybrid EM-i, forming a hybrid technology matrix with EM-p focusing on performance and EM-i focusing on economy. Currently, Galaxy has launched models such as the Galaxy E5 and Starship 7, highlighting the potential for explosive models. As the model matrix continues to improve, Galaxy is expected to start a new strong product cycle for Geely.
In terms of high-end technology, Linker and ZEEKR continues to expand, and profitability continues to improve. Lynk & Co is a joint venture between Geely and Volvo. It combines the technology, values and brand philosophy of the two, and continues to build a brand culture through participation in international competitions and excellent results, establishing a high-end brand image in the fuel vehicle and plug-in hybrid markets. With overseas expansion and the results of new energy transformation, Lynk & Co's profitability continues to improve. Born from Lynk & Co., Ltd., it is a high-end new energy brand launched by Geely. It is also a leader in the transformation of its own brand into high-end new energy. The characteristic of ZEEKR is that while maintaining its own strengths, it continues to make up for its shortcomings. Previously, models such as ZEEKR 001, Extreme Krypton 009, and Extreme Krypton 007 had laid a good market foundation for the brand. With the launch of the ZEEKR 7X and next year's large SUVs, ZEEKR has begun a model cycle for the domestic SUV market, which is expected to open up room for further growth.
Exports continued to grow, mainly fuel vehicles, and multiple brands adapted to local conditions. As China's automobile exports continue to grow, Geely Automobile's exports have also performed well. Among them, Geely's main brands are fuel vehicles, mainly targeting Russia, the Middle East, etc. Thanks to Volvo's empowerment and flexible subscription-based business model to open up the market in Europe, Geely Automobile gives full play to its advantages and continues to expand its footprint in various overseas markets, and is expected to continue to benefit from the growth and profitability of overseas markets.
Profit forecast and investment rating: The company's 2024-2026 revenue is expected to be 244.6/326.8/387.2 billion yuan, net profit due to mother is 16/13.9/19.9 billion yuan, corresponding EPS is 1.59/1.39/1.97 yuan, and corresponding PE is 8.85/10.14/7.11 times. The first coverage gives a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: model sales fall short of expectations, product launch pace falls short of expectations, geopolitical factors
