Jingwu Financial News | According to the research reports from Puruiyin International, Beigene (06160) achieved total revenue of 1.002 billion USD (+28.2% YoY, +7.8%) in Q3 2024, of which product revenue reached 0.993 billion USD (+66.9% YoY, +7.8% QoQ), roughly in line with VisibleAlpha's consensus expectation but slightly below the firm's expectations, mainly due to lower-than-expected sales of Zebrutinib in the USA; the net loss was 0.121 billion USD (-156.3% YoY, +0.8% QoQ), generally meeting VisibleAlpha's expectations but coming in lower than the firm's forecasts primarily due to a slight dip in revenue gross margin combined with R&D expenses being slightly higher than expected. After Q2 2024, Beigene achieved adjusted NON-GAAP operating profit (OP) in two consecutive quarters, with a profit of 65.63 million USD in Q3 (vs. Q2 2023: 48.46 million USD profit), better than the firm's expectations.
The firm stated that Zebrutinib's global sales in Q3 2024 reached 0.69 billion USD (+93.0% YoY, +8.3% QoQ), including: (1) sales in the USA reached 0.504 billion USD (+86.5% YoY, +5.2% QoQ), with management indicating that Zebrutinib's market share in the new CLL patient market (including first-line and second-line treatment scenarios) slightly exceeded that of Acalabrutinib. In terms of quarter-on-quarter growth rates, Zebrutinib's sales in Q3 slowed down compared to Q2 mainly due to seasonal impacts from the holiday travel in the third quarter, compounded by a one-time purchase of 15 million USD at the end of the second quarter; (2) sales in Europe amounted to 97.3 million USD (+217.2% YoY, +19.5% QoQ), benefiting from increased market share in major countries (Germany, Italy, Spain, France, United Kingdom); (3) sales in China were 67.8 million USD (+43.0% YoY, +6.6% QoQ). Due to further growth in Zebrutinib's overseas sales, US revenue accounted for 50.9% of the company's product revenue in Q3 2024, remaining relatively stable (vs. Q2 2024: 51.8%), while the share of European revenue further increased to 9.9% (vs. Q2 2024: 8.8%).
The firm slightly adjusted the revenue forecast for 2024E and tweaked the revenue estimates for 2025E/2026E, while also slightly lowering the gross margin forecasts for 2024E/2025E/2026E and lightly adjusting the operating expense ratio upwards. Therefore, the firm adjusted the 2024E/2025E net loss estimates to 0.74 billion/0.35 billion USD, with the net profit estimate for 2026E adjusted to near break-even. Based on the DCF valuation model (assuming WACC and perpetual growth rates of 8.1% and 3.0%, respectively), the target prices for US stocks/Hong Kong stocks were lowered to 255 USD/153 HKD, while maintaining the target price for A-shares at RMB 181 (with the premium coefficient for A-shares adjusted from 20% to 30%).
