自营收益率同比显著提升，环比维持稳定，自营业务持续修复。公司重资本业务净收入合计为8 亿元，单季度为5.1 亿元，环比+0.52 亿元。重资本业务净收益率（非年化）为1.1%，单季度为0.7%，环比持平，同比+0.4pct。拆分来看：Matters:
Guolian Securities released its report for the third quarter of 2024. Total revenue after excluding other business revenue: 2 billion yuan, -20.3% year over year, 0.9 billion yuan in a single quarter, unchanged from month to month. Net profit to mother: 0.4 billion yuan, -45.5% year-on-year, 0.31 billion yuan in a single quarter, flat month-on-month, and +0.18 billion yuan year-on-year.
Commentary:
Proprietary returns increased significantly year-on-year, remained stable month-on-month, and self-operated businesses continued to recover. The total net revenue from the company's heavy capital business was 0.8 billion yuan, or 0.51 billion yuan in a single quarter, +0.052 billion yuan compared to the previous quarter. The net return on the heavy capital business (non-annualized) was 1.1%, 0.7% in a single quarter, flat month-on-month, and +0.4 pct year over year. Let's break it down:
1) The total revenue from the company's own business (change in fair value+net income from investment - net income from joint ventures) was 0.93 billion yuan, or 0.55 billion yuan in a single quarter, +0.03 billion yuan over the previous quarter. The yield from self-employment in a single quarter was 1.3%, -0.1 pct month-on-month, and +0.9 pct year-on-year. In comparison, the average yield of active equity funds in a single quarter was +11.93%, +14.54pct month-on-month, and +18.86pct year-on-year. The average yield of pure debt funds was +0.23%. -0.8 pct month-on-month, -0.32 pct year over year.
2) Credit business: The company's interest income was 0.87 billion yuan, 0.29 billion yuan in a single quarter, +0.017 billion yuan compared to the previous quarter.
The scale of the two finance business was 8.8 billion yuan, +0.19 billion yuan month-on-month. The market share of Liangfinance was 0.61%, -0.03pct year on year.
3) Pledging business: The balance of financial assets purchased and resold was 10.6 billion yuan, +1.33 billion yuan compared to the previous month.
The decline in brokerage business revenue was relatively obvious from month to month, mainly because the brokerage business base was significantly higher in Q2.
1) Brokerage revenue was 0.4 billion yuan, or 0.12 billion yuan in a single quarter, -30.6% month-on-month and -7.7% year-on-year. The average daily turnover during the comparison period was 678.74 billion yuan, -18.4% month-on-month.
2) Investment banking revenue was 0.26 billion yuan, or 0.09 billion yuan in a single quarter, flat month-on-month, and -0.05 billion yuan year-on-year.
Looking at market sentiment during the comparison period, the IPO underwriting scale for the third quarter of 2024 was 15.374 billion yuan, +73.25%, the refinancing underwriting scale was 46.294 billion yuan, -14.23% month-on-month, and the corporate bond+corporate bond underwriting scale was 1042.446 billion yuan, +4.67% month-on-month.
3) Asset management revenue was 0.48 billion yuan, or 0.17 billion yuan in a single quarter, flat month-on-month, and -0.04 billion yuan year-on-year.
The company's ROE during the reporting period was 2.2%, -1.9pct year-on-year. ROE in a single quarter was 1.7%, flat month-on-month, and +1pct year-on-year. Looking at DuPont's split:
1) The company's financial leverage ratio at the end of the reporting period (total assets excluding customer funds) was 4.83 times, +0.42 times the previous year, and +0.3 times the previous month.
2) The company's asset turnover ratio during the reporting period (total assets excluding customer funds, total revenue excluding other business revenue) was 2.2%, -0.9 pct year over year. The asset turnover ratio in a single quarter was 1%, -0.1 pct month-on-month, and +0.1 pct year over year.
3) Excluding other business revenue, the company's net profit margin for the reporting period was 19.8%, -9.2pct year on year, 33.8% for the single quarter, +0.1pct month-on-month, and +15.6pct year-on-year.
Looking at the balance sheet, after excluding customer capital, the company's total assets were 88.7 billion yuan, +9.87 billion yuan year on year, and net assets: 18.4 billion yuan, +0.48 billion yuan year on year. The leverage ratio was 4.83 times, +0.42 times year over year. The company's interest-bearing debt balance was 55.9 billion yuan, +5.17 billion yuan month-on-month. The debt cost ratio for the single quarter was 0.6%, -0.1 pct month-on-month, and -0.1 pct year-on-year.
Investment advice: The three-quarter report of Guolian Securities's performance was in line with expectations. We are optimistic about the growth of the investment banking business after the company acquired Minsheng Securities. We expect the company's 2024/2025/2026 EPS to be 0.25/0.30/0.34 yuan (the value before 2024/2025/2026 was 0.26/0.32/0.36 yuan), BPS is 6.35/6.53/ 6.74 yuan respectively, the current stock price corresponds to 2.06/2.00/1.94 times, and the ROE is 3.97%/4.56%/5.08%, respectively.
Considering the company's increased leverage, the high-quality management team brought about a rapid improvement in the quality of the business asset structure, giving the company a 2025 PB valuation of 2.3 times, corresponding to a target price of 15.0 yuan, and maintaining a “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: Market trading volume declined; risk appetite declined; capital market innovation fell short of expectations; real economy recovery fell short of expectations.
