Recently, the battery giant contemporary amperex technology's founder and director, Zeng Yuqun, stated in an interview with Reuters that Musk's bet on the 4680 cylindrical battery "will fail and never succeed".

Currently, Tesla's autonomous driving technology still has significant uncertainties in terms of safety. Zeng Yuqun stated: "Musk may think it will take five years, but if you believe in his two-year timeline, then you will be in big trouble."

Zeng Yuqun estimates that contemporary amperex technology's development and management of the "zero-carbon" grid business may be "ten times" larger than supplying electric vehicle batteries.

In September, Zeng Yuqun also pointed out that the European battery manufacturing industry faces three major challenges: lack of design, process flow, and equipment. This makes it impossible for Europe and the US to produce good batteries.

Zeng Yuqun: Musk does not know how to make batteries.

Tesla chooses to rely on cameras and ai in its autonomous driving technology to reduce costs and achieve high sales volume.

This strategy is different from many competitors' practices, as they tend to adopt multi-level redundant technologies in autonomous vehicles to ensure higher safety, using them to operate taxis or delivery services.

During the interview, Ceng Yuqun clearly expressed his doubts about the 4680 cylindrical battery used by Tesla. He believes that Musk's wager on the cylindrical battery (i.e. 4680) "will fail and never succeed." He had exchanged views with Musk in Beijing in April.

"We had a very intense debate. He fell silent because he didn't know how to manufacture batteries. This is about electrochemistry, and he excels in chips, software, hardware, and machinery.

The 4680 battery, with a diameter of 46mm and a height of 80mm, has become the representative of Tesla's new generation battery technology. The core highlights of this battery technology include large cells, full tab design, and dry battery technology, aiming to improve energy density, fast charging advantages, and safety, while reducing battery costs.

Ceng Yuqun stated that Contemporary Amperex Technology's goal is to reshape itself as a green energy supplier, significantly reduce the cost of developing electric vehicles, thereby disrupting and driving growth in the automotive industry's economic model. Ceng Yuqun expects that the business of developing and managing a "zero-carbon" grid may be "ten times" larger than supplying electric vehicle batteries.

The "zero-carbon" grid system includes solar energy, wind energy, energy storage, and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) systems. In 2023, the revenue of Contemporary Amperex Technology's power battery system reached 285.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 20.57% - if Ceng Yuqun can achieve his "ten times" vision, the scale of Contemporary Amperex Technology's "zero-carbon grid" business may exceed 3 trillion yuan.

He stated that the goal of Contemporary Amperex Technology is to build large independent energy systems that are sufficient to power a large data center or even a city.

Musk's estimation of R&D time is too aggressive.

Ceng Yuqun also revealed that Musk often provides unrealistic estimates on development time, for example, a technology that should take five years, he may claim to achieve within two years.

"I asked him why, and he told me he wants to inspire people."

Elon Musk recently promised to launch fully automated driving Model 3 and Model Y models by 2025, and plans to release a hands-free and pedal-free automated driving "Cybercab" model in 2026.

Although Tesla's technological roadmap and strategic goals have attracted a lot of investor attention, Musk's consistent "radical" commitments may make investors skeptical about the realization of these commitments. Especially given the background that the development of Tesla's autonomous driving technology has been ongoing for years and has not yet fully matured.

Zeng Yuqun said:

"He may think it will take five years, but if you believe what he says about two years, then you are in big trouble."