Hot news

• On Wednesday, the three major stock index futures in pre-market trading rose slightly, and the October CPI data met expectations.

The USA's October CPI increased by 2.6% year-on-year, with expectations of a 2.6% increase, and the previous value was a 2.4% increase.

• Growth tech stocks fell in pre-market trading, with Tesla down over 1% and nvidia down 0.15%.

• Real estate china concept stocks in the USA rose in pre-market trading, with fangdd network up over 17% and ke holdings up nearly 4%.

Real estate china concept stocks in the USA rose in pre-market trading.$Fangdd Network (DUO.US)$Up over 17%, $KE Holdings (BEKE.US)$Increased nearly 4%. On the news front, the Ministry of Finance, State Taxation Administration, and Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued a notice regarding tax policies for promoting stable and healthy development of the real estate market. For individuals purchasing their only family home (the family members include the buyer, spouse, and minor children, the same applies below), a tax rate of 1% is applied for properties of 140 square meters or less; a tax rate of 1.5% is applied for properties exceeding 140 square meters.

• Popular China concept stocks are generally rising in trading.$XPeng (XPEV.US)$rose by more than 3%,$NIO Inc (NIO.US)$Rises more than 2%.

• The first batch of nvidia's new chips "Flower" falls on Softbank, leading the world's first AI and 5G network together.

Recently,$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$At the Nvidia AI Summit held in Tokyo, a series of collaborations with SoftBank were announced to accelerate Japan's sovereign AI initiative, further solidifying its global technology leadership while opening up billions of dollars in AI revenue opportunities for global telecom providers. It is reported that SoftBank Group will become Nvidia's first supercomputer customer based on the chip manufacturer's new Blackwell design, and the two companies also stated that they have piloted the world's first AI and 5G telecom network.

• Apple plans to launch a wall-mounted smart home device: powered by Siri + Apple Intelligence, expected to be released as early as March next year.

In order to catch up with competitors in the smart home market,$Apple (AAPL.US)$Close to launching a new product category - a wall-mounted display that can control home appliances, handle video conferences, and utilize ai navigation applications. According to informed sources, apple is preparing to launch this product as early as March next year, positioning it as a home command center. This product, codenamed 'J490,' will also focus on the new Apple Intelligence ai platform.

• Bezos continues to reduce his shareholding in amazon, cashing out a total of 2.7 billion dollars in November.

$Amazon (AMZN.US)$Founder Bezos continues to reduce his shareholding in amazon. Documents show that he sold a total of 1.2 billion dollars worth of shares last Friday (the 8th) and this Monday (the 11th), reaching 2.7 billion dollars in cash outs in November. Since July, Bezos has sold a total of 4.4 billion dollars worth of amazon stocks.

• Spotify rose over 8% in pre-market trading, with a significant year-on-year increase in Q3 eps and monthly active users exceeding expectations.

$Spotify Technology (SPOT.US)$Us stocks rose over 8% in pre-market trading, expected to refresh the historical high set during yesterday's trading after the opening. On the news front, Spotify's third-quarter revenue was 3.99 billion euros, an 18.7% year-on-year increase, slightly lower than the analyst's expectation of 4.03 billion euros; eps was 1.45 euros, a rise of about 340% compared to 0.33 euros in the same period last year. Monthly active users reached 0.64 billion, an 11% year-on-year growth, exceeding the analyst's expectation of 0.639 billion. The number of premium subscribers reached 0.252 billion, up 12% year-on-year.

• Dining stock CAVA Group soared over 16% in pre-market trading, poised to create a historical high at the opening! The company's Q3 earnings exceeded expectations and raised its full-year performance outlook.

$CAVA Group (CAVA.US)$The performance in the third quarter of 2024 was strong, with revenue increasing by 39% year-on-year to reach 241.5 million dollars. Net income surged 163% from Q3 2023, reaching 18 million dollars. Same-store sales soared by 18.1%, driven mainly by a 12.9% increase in customer traffic. Free cash flow significantly increased to 23.4 million dollars, noticeably higher than the previous year. As of the time of reporting, the company's stock rose over 16% in pre-market trading.

• The American private launch vehicle company Rocket Lab rose more than 25% in pre-market trading, with Q3 revenue increasing by 55% year-on-year.

American private launch vehicle company.$Rocket Lab (RKLB.US)$The stock jumped over 25% in pre-market trading. According to the news, the company's Q3 revenue was 0.105 billion dollars, up 55% year-on-year; net loss was 51.939 million dollars, compared to 40.568 million dollars in the same period last year. The company signed a multi-launch service agreement for its Neutron rocket with a commercial satellite constellation operator. Additionally, the company expects Q4 revenue to range between 0.125 billion dollars and -0.135 billion dollars.

• Super micro computer postponed the submission of its 10-Q quarterly report, stating it needs more time to find a new audit firm, resulting in a nearly 3% drop in pre-market trading.

$Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$It was stated that due to the continued delay in submitting the annual report, the company is unable to timely submit the quarterly 10-Q report for the period ending September 30, 2024. The company said that the special committee of the board of directors has completed an investigation based on a series of preliminary concerns raised by its former auditing firm, Ernst & Young. The committee has other work ongoing, but it is expected that the review will be completed soon.

As of the time of writing, the company's pre-market trading has dropped nearly 3%.

• CyberArk's stock rose over 6% in pre-market trading, with third-quarter subscription revenue increasing 43% to 0.176 billion yuan, and all indicators for the full year guidance were raised.

$CyberArk (CYBR.US)$Pre-market trading rose over 6%, with the subscription portion of annual recurring revenue (ARR) increasing 46% year-on-year to 0.735 billion dollars; total ARR increased 31% year-on-year to 0.926 billion dollars; subscription revenue grew 43% year-on-year to 0.176 billion dollars; as of September 30, 2024, net cash provided by operating activities was 0.167 billion dollars; the company raised guidance for all indicators for the full year, expecting fourth-quarter revenue of 0.297 billion dollars.

• Thanks to increased production, Occidental Petroleum's Q3 revenue and profits exceeded expectations, rising 0.7% in pre-market trading.

USA oil and gas company.$Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)$The reported third-quarter profit exceeded Wall Street's expectations, but the company's total revenue fell by 14% due to asset sales and a decline in the chemicals business. Adjusted profit for Q3 was $0.977 billion, or $1 per share, against the analysts' prior estimate of 74 cents per share due to weaker oil & gas prices. The oil company's third-quarter revenue increased by 0.2% year-on-year to $7.17 billion, slightly above the expected $7.12 billion.

As of the time of writing, the company's pre-market trading is up 0.7%.

• Rivian's pre-market trading rose nearly 10%, with Volkswagen increasing its investment amount to $5.8 billion.

USA electric vehicle company.$Rivian Automotive (RIVN.US)$In pre-market trading, US stocks rose nearly 10%. On the news front, Volkswagen of Germany and Rivian announced joint venture details involving a funding scale of $5.8 billion, higher than the previously announced $5 billion in June. The two parties did not explain the reason for the increased funding. Rivian stated that the first $1 billion funding provided by Volkswagen has been secured, and the group is confident that its R2 SUV can start production in 2026. The first electric vehicle developed using Rivian technology by Volkswagen will be launched in 2027.

• ZTO Express's pre-market trading rose nearly 3%, and China's express delivery industry development index increased by 21.1% year-on-year in October.

$ZTO Express (ZTO.US)$In pre-market trading, it rose by 2.83%, reaching $21.41. According to the State Post Bureau, the express delivery development index for China in October 2024 is 464.4, a year-on-year increase of 21.1%. Both express delivery volume and revenue have experienced rapid growth, with the service quality index rising by 20.9% year-on-year, and infrastructure construction, aviation network building, and cross-border service capabilities have all improved. The development trend index increased by 6% year-on-year, and it is expected that the industry will maintain rapid growth in November.

• The proportion of call options for nvidia soared yesterday! Multiple call orders earned almost double.

$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$Overnight, it rose over 2% against the trend, with options trading increasing to 3.3 million contracts, and the call ratio surged to 71%. Call options were aggressively bought, and those expiring this Friday with strike prices close to the current price were the hottest, among which the total trading volume of $150 strike call options exceeded 0.34 million contracts, with an open interest of about 0.16 million contracts, and the option premiums rose nearly 90%.

Given the optimistic expectations for Blackwell's super cycle, several Wall Street analysts have raised their target price for Nvidia on the eve of its third-quarter earnings release on November 20 (U.S. Eastern Time). Piper Sandler analyst raised the target price from $140 to $175, while the analyst at Morgan Stanley raised the target price from $150 to $160. Analysts generally believe that AI applications are still in the early stages of development, and the Blackwell cycle will continue to drive Nvidia's performance upwards.

Global macro

• The USA's October CPI will be released tonight: core inflation is expected to remain resilient, while overall inflation is set to rebound.

The USA's October CPI data will be released tonight. Market participants predict that this latest data will show core inflation remains strong for the third consecutive month, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in the coming months will also become a focal point of debate. The market currently anticipates that the year-on-year increase of the USA's October CPI will be 2.6%, up from the 2.4% increase in September; the month-on-month increase is expected to be 0.2%, in line with the previous value. The core CPI's year-on-year increase, excluding food and energy, is expected to be 3.3%, in line with the previous value; the month-on-month increase is expected to be 0.3%, also in line with the previous value.

• There are signs of bubbles in high-risk areas of the stock market, as excitement and concerns coexist following Trump's victory.

After Donald Trump achieved a decisive victory in the presidential election, signs of a bubble surge emerged in high-risk areas of the stock market, raising concerns about market overheating. Despite a decline in some trades ahead of key inflation data, including small-cap stocks, stocks with heavy put bets, and unprofitable tech stocks, the market remains shrouded in excitement, especially due to the significant increases in Tesla and bitcoin.

However, market observers also point out concerning signals, such as the risks of small-cap stocks during rising bond yields, the high levels of the unprofitable tech stock index, and indicators of a significant number of short sell stocks approaching trade ranges that signify reversals. Despite these concerns, bulls have not completely lost hope, as some market indicators suggest that a rebound may not yet be over.

• Trump's 2.0 policies support the strengthening of the dollar, while emerging markets continue to decline.

Investor bets on the new government led by the USA's elected president Trump will receive strong support to implement its policies, which has resulted in the dollar continuing its rally, causing emerging market assets to drop on Wednesday. The emerging market currency index hovers at its lowest point in three months, weighed down by the dollar rising to a two-year high against a basket of currencies. As Trump's cabinet is formed, key positions will be filled by loyalists prepared to execute the 'America First' policy, raising concerns that support for tariff increases will be obtained, accelerating inflation and limiting the central bank's ability to cut rates.

• Pessimistic sentiment sweeps the oil market! If OPEC+ cancels production cuts, oil prices could plummet to $40 in 2025.

With OPEC repeatedly lowering global oil demand growth expectations for four consecutive months, and the '2025 oil oversupply' viewpoint led by Wall Street banks gradually being accepted by traders, some commodity market analysts have a pessimistic outlook for Brent crude prices, stating that crude oil prices could significantly drop to $40 in 2025, and in the most pessimistic scenario, could plunge to $30.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

The next morning

01:00 EIA releases the monthly short-term energy outlook report.

01:30 2025 FOMC voter Musalem gives a speech.

02:30 2025 FOMC voter Schmidt gives a speech.

05:30 USA API crude oil inventory for the week ending November 8 (ten thousand barrels)

Editor/ping