1. On November 13 (Wednesday) pre-market trading in the US stock market, the three major US stock index futures all fell. As of the time of publication, Dow Jones futures fell by 0.27%, S&P 500 index futures fell by 0.21%, and Nasdaq futures fell by 0.24%.

2. As of the time of publication, the Germany DAX index fell by 0.08%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell by 0.14%, the France CAC 40 index fell by 0.10%, and the Europe Stoxx 50 index fell by 0.05%.

3. As of the time of publication, WTI crude oil rose by 0.26% to $68.30 per barrel. Brent crude oil rose by 0.24% to $72.06 per barrel.

Market News

The US October CPI will be released tonight: core inflation is expected to remain strong, while overall inflation is set to rise. The US October CPI data will be announced on Wednesday night. Market participants predict that this latest data will show core inflation remaining strong for the third consecutive month, with the pace of Fed rate cuts in the coming months likely to be a topic of debate. The market currently expects the year-on-year increase in US October CPI to be 2.6%, higher than September's 2.4%; the month-on-month increase is expected to be 0.2%, in line with the previous value. The year-on-year increase in core CPI excluding food and energy items is forecasted to be 3.3%, consistent with the previous value; the month-on-month increase is expected to be 0.3%, likewise in line with the previous value. If the US October CPI data is below expectations, it indicates that current inflation is generally under control, putting pressure on US bond yields and the dollar; if the CPI data shows an unexpected rebound, it may raise concerns about high inflation making a comeback, potentially hindering future rate cuts, leading to a rise in US bond yields and the dollar's momentum.

The stock market's high-risk areas are showing signs of a bubble, with excitement and concerns coexisting after Trump's victory. Following President-elect Donald Trump's decisive victory, signs of a surge in market bubbles have emerged in high-risk areas of the stock market, raising concerns about the market overheating. Despite some declines in early trading prior to the release of key inflation data, including small-cap stocks, stocks heavily shorted, and unprofitable tech stocks, the market remains engulfed in excitement, especially with significant gains in Tesla and Bitcoin. However, market observers also point out worrisome signals, such as the risk of small-caps when bond yields rise, the high level of unprofitable tech stock indices, and indicators of a large number of shorted stocks nearing the trading range that signals a reversal. Despite these concerns, the bulls have not lost all hope as some market indicators suggest the rebound may not be over yet.

Trump 2.0 policies support the strengthening of the US dollar, while emerging markets continue to decline. Due to investors betting that the newly elected US President Trump and his new government will receive strong support to implement his policies, the US dollar continues to rise, leading to a drop in emerging market assets on Wednesday. The MSCI Emerging Markets Stock Index fell by 0.8% at one point, marking the fourth consecutive day of decline, setting the longest losing streak in three weeks. During this period, the market capitalization of the index evaporated by $650 billion. Meanwhile, the emerging markets currency index hovered at its lowest point in three months, dragged down by the US dollar rising to a two-year high against a basket of currencies. With the formation of Trump's cabinet, the performance gap between the US stock market and other stock markets continues to widen, with key positions to be held by loyalists prepared to execute the "America First" policy. This has raised concerns about the increase in tariffs gaining support, accelerating inflation, and limiting the central bank's ability to cut interest rates.

Bridgewater Co-CIO: US stocks are worth owning, the US economy is expected to grow strongly. Karen Karniol-Tambour, Co-CIO of Bridgewater Fund, stated on Tuesday that US stocks are a "good thing" worth holding. She added that she expects strong economic growth in the US under the leadership of the Trump administration. Since Trump's victory, the S&P 500 index has risen by nearly 5%. Karniol-Tambour stated that despite the ten-year US bond yields rising to a four-month high after Trump's victory, the prospects for US economic growth are driving the stock market higher. She said, "We may still have room for growth, even with tariffs and many unknown factors."

Several institutions claim that Trump's victory will "affect" the bond market, and US bond yields may rise to 5% or higher. Investment institutions including Franklin Templeton, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, and T. Rowe Price believe that as the market digests the impact of Trump's victory on the bond market, US bond yields will rise. Franklin Templeton stated that as the US government increases debt supply to cover trillions of dollars in deficits, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bonds may rise to 5% or higher. Drexel, along with J.P. Morgan Asset Management and T. Rowe Price, warned that as investors begin to digest the impact of Donald Trump's reelection on the bond market, US Treasury bond yields might rise. Since November 5th, the US bond market has been fluctuating as traders weigh whether the federal budget deficit will expand and if the Federal Reserve can continue to cut interest rates.

Trump appoints Musk to lead the "Department of Government Efficiency", Dogecoin violently surges. On Tuesday evening local time, the US President-elect Trump formally announced the formation of the Department of Government Efficiency ('DOGE'), causing Dogecoin to continue its upward trend. In a statement, Trump announced that Tesla (TSLA.US) CEO Elon Musk and former Republican presidential candidate and Co-Founder of Strive Asset Management, Vivek Ramaswamy, will lead the department. They will "clear the way for this administration by removing bureaucratic government, reducing unnecessary regulations, cutting waste spending, and restructuring federal agencies." Dogecoin rose by nearly 20%. The token has been one of the biggest winners since the election, rising by 153% since election day, while Bitcoin has only increased by 30% during the same period.

Pessimism overwhelms the oil market! If OPEC+ cancels production cuts, oil prices may plummet to $40 in 2025. As OPEC has lowered global oil demand growth expectations for four consecutive months, and with the gradually accepted "oversupply in oil supply by 2025" view dominated by Wall Street's major banks, bulk commodity investment institutions generally hold a deeply pessimistic outlook on price prospects in 2025 for current crude oil and refined oil futures markets, especially for Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices. Goldman Sachs predicts that under the trend of oversupply in oil supply, Brent crude oil futures prices may fall to as low as $61 next year. However, some commodity market analysts have a more pessimistic view than Goldman on the trend of Brent crude oil prices, suggesting that crude oil prices in 2025 may plummet significantly to $40, and in the most pessimistic scenario, could drop to $30.

Individual stock news

China Automotive Systems (CAAS.US): Q3 2024 financial report achieves revenue of $0.1642 billion, compared to $0.1375 billion for the previous quarter; earnings per share is $0.18, compared to $0.31 in the previous quarter.

Thanks to increased production, Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US) Q3 revenue and profit exceed expectations. US oil and natural gas company Occidental Petroleum Corporation reported third-quarter profits that exceeded Wall Street's expectations, but total revenue for the company fell by 14% due to asset sales and declines in the chemical business. Due to weakening oil and gas prices, adjusted Q3 profit was $0.977 billion, or $1 per share, lower than the $1.13 billion, or $1.18 per share, in the same period last year. According to data compiled by LSEG, analysts had previously expected earnings per share to be 74 cents. The company's third-quarter revenue increased by 0.2% year-on-year to $7.17 billion, slightly higher than the expected $7.12 billion.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US) delays financial report release, pre-market stock price falls. Super Micro Computer is currently facing the issue of delayed financial report, with its stock price falling by about 4.2% in pre-market trading on Wednesday. The company stated that due to the need for additional time to select and hire a new accounting firm, as well as prepare the 10-Q form for the first quarter of 2025, it was unable to timely submit the quarterly report for the period ending September 30th. The board of directors' special committee has completed the investigation into the initial concerns raised by the former auditor Ernst & Young, but other work is still ongoing, with the review expected to be completed soon. Super Micro Computer had previously failed to submit its annual report on Form 10-K for the period ending June 30, 2024.

Apple (AAPL.US) plans to launch wall-mounted smart home device: Siri + Apple Intelligence to be launched as early as March next year. In order to catch up with competitors in the smart home market, Apple is close to launching a new product category - a wall-mounted display that can control home appliances, handle video conferences, and utilize artificial intelligence navigation applications. According to sources, Apple is preparing to launch this product as early as March next year, positioning it as a home command center. This product, codenamed "J490", will also focus on the new Apple Intelligence artificial intelligence platform.

First batch of Nvidia (NVDA.US) new chips 'landed' SoftBank, leading the world's first AI and 5G network together. Earlier on Wednesday, Nvidia announced a series of collaborations with SoftBank at the Nvidia Artificial Intelligence Summit in Tokyo, aiming to accelerate Japan's sovereignty in artificial intelligence and further consolidate its global technological leadership, while unleashing billions of dollars in artificial intelligence revenue opportunities for global telecommunications providers. SoftBank Group will be Nvidia's first customer for the new Blackwell chip designed by the manufacturer, with both companies stating that they have successfully conducted trials of the world's first AI and 5G telecommunications network.

Important economic data and events notice

21:30 Beijing time: US October CPI annual rate not seasonally adjusted(%)

23:00 Beijing time: US November IPSOS Primary Consumer Sentiment Index PCSI

Next day 05:30 Beijing time: US API crude oil inventory change in the week ending November 8th (in thousand barrels)

22:35 Beijing time: 2026 FOMC voter, Dallas Fed President Logan gives opening remarks at a conference on energy and economy.

At 23:30 Beijing time, in 2026, FOMC voting committee member and Philadelphia Fed President Haque delivered a speech on fintech and artificial intelligence.

At 01:00 Beijing time the following day, the EIA released its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report.

At 02:30 Beijing time the following day, St. Louis Fed President Musaleim delivered a speech.

At 03:30 Beijing time the following day, Kansas Fed President Schmidt delivered a speech.

Performance forecast.

Thursday morning: Cisco (CSCO.US), Dada (DADA.US)

Thursday pre-market: JD.com (JD.US), Netease (NTES.US), Youdao (DAO.US), Bilibili (BILI.US), Disney (DIS.US)