Last week, you might have seen that Myriad Genetics, Inc. (NASDAQ:MYGN) released its third-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 8.2% to US$16.17 in the past week. The statutory results were mixed overall, with revenues of US$213m in line with analyst forecasts, but losses of US$0.24 per share, some 6.2% larger than the analysts were predicting. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Myriad Genetics' 14 analysts is for revenues of US$893.8m in 2025. This reflects a solid 8.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 51% to US$0.63. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$926.4m and losses of US$0.62 per share in 2025.
The analysts have cut their price target 15% to US$25.69per share, signalling that the declining revenue and ongoing losses are contributing to the lower valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Myriad Genetics analyst has a price target of US$35.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$15.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Myriad Genetics' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 6.8% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 2.0% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see revenue growth of 21% annually. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, Myriad Genetics is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Myriad Genetics analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 4 warning signs for Myriad Genetics you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
