发布全新升级的内容团队“赛道主理人”机制，重视内容IP生态构建。会上，公司提出，湖南卫视、芒果TV全面升级内容团队“赛道主理人”机制，打通内容与商业化，推出“剧情式广告”“IP衍生剧综”“后链路”等融合创新产品，并构建“强势平台导流-垂类平台全覆盖-商业平台兜底”的平台矩阵，实现长中短贯通、音视频共进、资源多向流通。我们认为，公司重视优质内容IP的价值，基于独特的芒果六平台生态，展望2025 年，公司持续深耕内容创新，进一步构建更加完善的IP全链路产业生态。The company's recent situation
On November 12, 2024, the “Customer First, Mango Ecological Expansion Conference - 2025 Mango Ecological Circle Expansion Conference” was held in Changsha. Hunan TV, Mango TV, Golden Eagle Cartoon, Xiaomang, Shanhai, and Fengmang formed the first assembly and debut of six new Mango platforms. The company stated that it plans to vigorously invest in high-quality creations in 2025 and release more than 100 series, over 100 variety shows, and more than 120 micro-drama summaries, parties, and documentary content.
reviews
Released the newly upgraded content team “track manager” mechanism, focusing on the construction of a content IP ecosystem. At the meeting, the company proposed that Hunan TV and Mango TV fully upgrade the content team's “track manager” mechanism, open up content and commercialization, launch innovative products such as “storyline advertising,” “IP derivative series,” and “backlink”, and build a platform matrix of “strong platform diversion - full coverage of vertical platforms - commercial platform support” to achieve long-term, medium and short communication, audio and video integration, and multi-directional circulation of resources. We believe that the company attaches importance to the value of high-quality content IP. Based on the unique Mango 6 platform ecosystem, looking forward to 2025, the company will continue to deepen content innovation and further build a more complete IP full-link industrial ecosystem.
Episode: Focus on the breakthrough potential of S-series, and the membership business is expected to develop healthily. At the meeting, the company mentioned that at present, the number of active Mango TV members has increased to 71.71 million. We judge that the Mango Dynamic Zone Card (in partnership with China Mobile) and 88VIP partner members have contributed to a certain extent. The 4Q24 series has begun to make a breakthrough. We judge that at this point, the company is expected to enter the content verification cycle. According to Yunhe data, “People in the Alley” ranked second in the broadcast volume list for the first 2 weeks, and the dramatic effect was outstanding. Looking ahead, judging from the broadcast schedule, we expect “Brilliant Wind and Sea”, “Lucky Family”, etc. to be broadcast on 4Q24, and “Five Lucky Family” will be broadcast in 2025. Other reserves include “Water Dragon Yin,” “Benevolent Club,” “Cheetah,” “Starting a Family,” “Genius Player,” “Waiting for You,” “The Second Half,” “Growth,” and “Jingheng Street.” We believe that in 2025, the company may continue to increase investment in premium series and deepen cooperation with leading companies in the industry chain. The cost of content may rise on the basis of focusing on ROI, the membership business is expected to grow healthily, and leading series may also drive the growth of effective advertising.
Variety: Multiple tracks work together, leading IPs continue to upgrade. At the conference, the directors of each track focused on promoting various types of content such as audio, mystery, social emotions, emotional insight, cultural trends, reality shows, and circles. Among them, the company expects the key variety shows “Ride the Wind 2025” and “The Singer 2025” may be launched on 1Q25 and 2Q25, respectively. The innovative variety reserves include “Landing in Kauai” and “Our Time Machine,” while “Immersive” and “Friends, Please Listen” are expected to return. We believe that the company continues to invest in variety show themes and model innovation, and the content quality rate continues to rise. Currently, the market's expectations for this year's advertising business are quite sufficient. If the external environment improves in 2025, the advertising business will also have procyclical flexibility.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Keep profit forecasts unchanged. The current price corresponds to 28.8/25.2 times 2024/2025 P/E. Maintaining an outperforming industry rating, considering that the company is expected to enter the content verification cycle, we raised the target price by 12.5% to 36 yuan, corresponding 37/32 times the 2024/2025 P/E, with 28.1% upside compared to the current price.
risks
The recovery in advertising investment has been slow, membership growth has fallen short of expectations, and content regulation has become stricter.
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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