Gelonghui on November 13th| Analyst Jeremy Boulton said that traders no longer have too much expectations for the Fed, which is crucial because unexpected events are more likely to cause volatility in the forex market. A few months ago, the market expected the Fed to cut US interest rates to below 3% before the middle of next year, a scenario that boosted the stock market and put pressure on the US dollar. The US election has raised concerns about inflation and trade wars, and may lead to US interest rates exceeding 4%, after which traders bought more dollars than they sold before. There have been rapid changes in forex bets and views on the US interest rate path, with traders who have been inclined to change their minds quickly and invest heavily in the past 18 months likely to do so again in the future. The market is skeptical about whether there will be another rate cut this year, with the probability of a rate cut in December dropping to 63%. Liquidity tends to tighten at the end of the year, and if traders are surprised by trends that were considered certain a few weeks ago, it may exacerbate the reaction.