Core views

The company released its 2024 three-quarter report. The company's revenue for the 2024Q3 single quarter was 2.606 billion yuan, and net profit to mother was 0.196 billion yuan. Q3's revenue and net profit grew rapidly month-on-month, mainly because Q2 Middle East deferred delivery orders were carried over to Q3, so Q3 tracking bracket shipments increased dramatically month-on-month. New orders are growing rapidly, and the company's revenue and profit growth rate is guaranteed. The high growth in the company's orders is mainly due to the advance layout of the Middle East, India, and Asia Pacific markets. The Middle East, India, and Asia Pacific markets continued to grow rapidly this year.

The company's active overseas layout has led to a steady increase in global market share. In 2023, the global market share of the company's tracking bracket reached 9%, and the Middle East, India, and Latin American markets blossomed more.

occurrences

The company released its three-quarter report for 2024. From January to September 2024, the company's revenue was 59.8.2 billion yuan, up 76.30% year on year, and net profit was 0.427 billion yuan, up 171.48% year on year; 2024Q3 The company's revenue in a single quarter was 2.606 billion yuan, up 77.05% year on year, up 66.82% month on month, and net profit to mother was 0.196 billion yuan, up 230.39% year on year, up month on month 153.36%

Brief review

Q3 The company's revenue and net profit grew rapidly month-on-month, mainly because Q2 Middle East deferred delivery orders were carried forward to Q3, so Q3 tracking bracket shipments increased dramatically month-on-month. Q3 The company's revenue and net profit to mother were 2.606 billion yuan and 0.196 billion yuan respectively, up 66.82% and 153.36%, respectively.

New orders are growing rapidly, and the company's revenue and profit growth rate is guaranteed. As of the end of Q3, the company's on-hand orders were about RMB 5.99 billion, of which the tracking stand was in hand orders of about 5.21 billion yuan, corresponding to about 13 GW according to the unit price of the tracking bracket of 0.4 yuan/W. As of the end of Q2, the company's on-hand tracking stand orders were about 5.55 billion yuan, and the delivery amount for the Q3 tracking stand was about 2.4 billion yuan. Corresponding to the Q3 single quarter, the company signed a new tracking stand order amount of about 2.06 billion yuan, corresponding to about 5GW. The total number of new orders signed for Q1-Q3 was about 5.7 billion yuan, corresponding to about 14.3 GW, far exceeding the 4.6 billion yuan of orders in hand at the end of last year.

The high growth in the company's orders is mainly due to the advance layout of the Middle East, India, and Asia Pacific markets. The Middle East, India, and Asia Pacific markets continued to grow rapidly this year. As of September, component exports to typical Middle Eastern countries (including the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Egypt, and Israel) and the Asian market grew at a year-on-year rate of 133% and 95%, respectively. India's module+battery exports grew 179% year on year, and the company's subsequent order growth rate is still guaranteed.

The active layout of overseas markets has led to a steady increase in global market share. Referring to WoodMackenzie data, the company's global market share of tracking brackets reached 9% in 2023, an increase of 4 pcts over 2022. The main reason is that since 2023, the company's Middle East, India, and Latin American markets have blossomed, and orders and sales have grown rapidly.

Profit forecast: The company is the leading domestic tracking bracket in the field of photovoltaic stent systems. The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 0.618, 0.918, and 1.271 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 79.04%, 48.62%, and 38.41%, respectively. Earnings per share are 3.05, 4.53, and 6.28 yuan, respectively. PE corresponding to the closing market value on November 12 is 28.9, 19.44, and 14.05 times, respectively.

Risk warning: 1. Demand in the photovoltaic industry falls short of expectations. We forecast the company's shipments based on demand in the PV industry maintaining a 20%-30% growth rate in the next few years. If demand in the photovoltaic industry falls short of expectations, the company's glass shipments may also fall below our forecast; 2. The cost of raw materials will rise. The core raw material for the bracket is steel. If steel prices fluctuate greatly in the future, the gross margin of the company's products will also be affected; 3. Overseas market expansion progress falls short of expectations. Currently, demand for tracking stents products is mainly in overseas markets. The company's orders mainly come from India, the Middle East, Europe and other regions and countries. If the company's overseas market order acquisition progress falls short of expectations, the company's stent sales may fall short of expectations; 4. The domestic tracking stent penetration rate is not increasing as fast as expected.

China is the world's largest installed market for photovoltaic power plants, but currently the penetration rate of tracking brackets in terrestrial power plants is still at a low level. If the domestic tracking bracket penetration rate does not increase as fast as expected in the future, the company's tracking bracket sales may fall short of expectations.