But on Tuesday, DeutscheBank's (DeutscheBank) strategist team published a report reviewing how the global economy and global markets have evolved over the past 25 years, providing clients with a perspective.

In the quarter century that began in 2000, global debt has accumulated large amounts, and demographic trends in developed countries and some emerging countries have worsened. The advance of globalization seems to have stalled, as global trade as a percentage of global GDP seems to have stagnated.

If you go back in time to 25 years ago, many of these developments might come as a surprise.

For example, as the Deutsche Bank team pointed out, as early as 2000, the US Congressional Budget Office anticipated that the federal government would be able to pay off all outstanding debts by 2013.

But soon after, America's debt-to-GDP ratio began to rise continuously, and recently surpassed 100% for the first time since World War II.

But for contemporary investors, Deutsche Bank's analysis of stock performance since December 31, 1999 may be just as surprising.

The S&P 500's performance during this period was still affected by the internet crash, the 2008 financial crisis, and post-COVID-19 inflationary shocks in 2022.

According to Deutsche Bank data, due to these turbulent times, the past quarter-century was actually the second-lowest period of compound return in the nine such periods since 1800. The only time the stock performed poorly? 25 years from the beginning of the 20th century to 1924.

This should be a useful reality test for investors, and a lesson for those on Wall Street who are calling for a “lost decade” for the stock market in the future. Recently, Goldman Sachs (GS.N) and Vanguard (Vanguard) strategists warned that the stock's annual return in the next few years could be low in single digits.

“Jim Reid (Jim Reid), head of global economics and special studies at Deutsche Bank, said, “So while several stock bulls from 2000-2024 (quarter-century) sometimes make the asset class feel indestructible, the reality is that multiple sell-offs and crises made returns for the entire period relatively low compared to history.

Jim Reed, head of global economics and subject research at Deutsche Bank, said, “Not only are stocks underperforming on an absolute basis. Equities also underperformed compared to other asset classes, with gold being the most prominent of which. In fact, it is best for investors to invest all their money in gold in December 1999 and keep it all the time.

Since then, the S&P 500 has had an actual compound annual return of 4.9%, compared to 6.8% for gold. This is unique in the nine quarter-centuries of Deutsche Bank research.

Gold is also slightly ahead of stocks in 2024. According to FactSet data, as of this Tuesday, SPDRGoldShareSetfGLD's increase since this year was 25.6%, narrowly outperforming the S&P 500's 25.5% increase.

Although stocks have successfully surpassed bonds, the cumulative return of the S&P 500 index has not surpassed the cumulative return on treasury bonds.

All this aside, the Deutsche Bank team remains convinced that stocks are the best choice for investors with a long-term perspective.

The Deutsche Bank team said: “In some periods, stocks did not perform well, but this often didn't last more than a decade.

Deutsche Bank believes there is another reason investors should consider insisting on buying stocks. In the long run, not only are stocks performing reliably better than alternatives such as bonds, but the unsustainable trajectory of global debt accumulation also increases the possibility that inflation will soar again, as governments around the world are trying to use inflation to eliminate debt.

Past experience has shown that periods of sustained inflation have a much smaller impact on stocks than bonds, although both asset classes have been hit in 2022.

The US stock market closed lower on Tuesday, as the post-election rally took a breather. The S&P 500 index fell 0.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.1%. The DJIA of the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 382 points, or 0.9%, to 43,911 points.