It is difficult to predict which industries may perform well during Trump's administration. Instead, bets can be placed on index options and exchange-traded funds.
The reelection of Donald Trump could profoundly affect the trends in the stocks and options markets.
For a long time, artificial intelligence and other innovations have brought lucrative returns to investments, but these thematic trades may be replaced by global investment themes. Betting on national and international trends is a more challenging profession that requires a detailed understanding of the complex engine that drives world development.
It is difficult to predict which industries may perform well during Trump's presidency. Trump's cabinet secretaries and other key appointees have no loyalty to the isolated Washington. They may even harbor hostility. The impact of changes in tax laws, currency markets, tariffs, as well as deportations of illegal immigrants and shifts in fiscal foreign policy on the economy is too vast and complex for authoritative discussions before implementation.
Any changes made by Trump will occur amidst waving hands and boastful remarks. Top officials from financial and government institutions, as well as the articulate experts who often obey them, will strive to outdo each other's rhetoric. Their words should be viewed with skepticism.
No one knows what would happen if policy changes favoring American goods and companies were to alter the economic alliances established to stabilize the post-World War II damaged world. Dean Acheson crafted many such policies and understood the complexity of national strategy.
Unless there is a change in the national sentiment that propels Trump to victory, the midterm elections are unlikely to have a substantial impact.
Market uncertainties are typically present, but the U.S. stock market may continue to rise over the next two years. Although the returns of the S&P 500 index lean towards the international market, which requires further research and may necessitate some new currency hedging products to mitigate this risk, this upward trend should make the S&P 500 index a more popular representative of Trump's policies.
In the options market, investors must consider changes.Implied volatilityThis is the essence of options trading. If buying call and put options as inexpensive alternatives to stocks instead of selling stocks, then the options selling strategy may lose its appeal. (Call options give the holder the right to buy assets at a set price and time, while put options give the holder the right to sell assets at a set price and time).
If you have deep faith in Trump's policies, index options and exchange-traded funds may become the preferred way for stock investors to use long trading leverage, to increase position size cost-effectively.
High conviction investors often say they can hold 117% of stocks of whatever they like. This means they can buy $1 million of SPDR S&P 500 exchange-traded fund and increase their position to $1.17 million using index options.
So far, our Trump trades have been progressing smoothly. On January 31, we predicted Trump's re-election and advised buying SPDR S&P 500 index call options with a strike price of $530 for December, which has now been profitable. We recently advised selling put options and buying more SPDR S&P 500 index stocks, as the stock market is the big winner of the election. Subsequently, the market surged and option volatility decreased.
The sectors that support the political world are in motion. Have patience. Remember the advice of Anselm Rothschild, whose family was an indispensable European financier: go with the flow, profit from the world's foolishness.