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桥水基金CIO:美股还有运行空间,但已不是最佳投资

Bridgewater Fund CIO: There is still room for the running of the US stock market, but it is no longer the best investment choice.

Golden10 Data ·  15:10

CIO Qiaoshui pointed out that there are still many reasons to believe that the stock market still has room to rise, but investors should absorb the lessons of the bursting of the internet bubble.

Although the stock market is hot, according to Karen Karniol-Tambour, the co-chief investment officer of the world's largest hedge fund Bridgewater Fund, that doesn't mean now is the best time to invest in the stock market.

Karniol-Tambour said on Tuesday, “I see very few people really need to buy more stocks.”

After last week's presidential election, the stock market soared to an all-time high, and Wall Street strategists raised their expectations for the stock market level at the end of this year.

Bank of America data showed that investors raised their exposure to US stocks to the highest level in 11 years. They are betting on optimism about economic growth during President-elect Trump's administration.

“What you can't ignore is that today's exposure to the stock market is very different from what it used to be,” Karniol-Tambour said. “People are very, very open to the stock market.”

She is concerned that many investors are no longer as resilient to shocks as before. She pointed out that the stock-bond mix, which used to be 60% stocks and 40% bonds, has now become 80% stocks and 20% bonds.

Karniol-Tambour said she told customers they should invest in the “next marginal move” something that might help them in a growth or inflationary shock scenario, whether it's bonds, gold, or other commodities such as oil.

Bonds can better protect portfolios in growth shock scenarios (such as the outbreak of war or financial crisis), while gold, oil, and other commodities are more popular when inflation rebounds, she said. “I love having both in my portfolio,” Karniol-Tambour added.

She said there are still “many reasons to think” that the current stock market “still has room to rise,” and pointed out that the current situation is very similar to 1998, when the S&P 500 index rose 28%, and the Federal Reserve is easing monetary policy. “I think our current expansion still has a long way to go,” she said.

However, she pointed out that the internet bubble burst after 1998. “Obviously, the bubble that burst in 1999 had a negative impact on people's portfolios for a long time, and even if you're optimistic about the stock market, you don't want your portfolio to be too monolithic.”

The full impact that Trump's proposed larger tariffs, immigration policies, and tax cuts could have on the US deficit has also raised concerns that inflation may begin to rise again. But Karniol-Tambour said, “The market is basically telling you more or less that Trump is better for growth and better for inflation.”

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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