坚定投入AI算力，流动资金来源持续丰富。2023 年下半年以来，公司AI基础设施投入节奏显著加快；据我们估算，自3Q23 以来的一年中，公司资本开支投入金额超过人民币36 亿元，主要投入于AI算力。与此同时，相关投入已实现可观收入转化，2Q24 公司AI业务收入达3.3 亿元，占公有云/整体收入比例分别约达26%/17%。我们认为，公司融资渠道的拓展将为后续季度AI算力投入提供更加充分的支撑。2Q24，公司经调整毛利率达17.1%，已连续八个季度环比改善；经调整EBITDA利润率于1Q24 转正后亦持续环比改善，当季达3.2%。考虑到公司AI算力投入ROI及业务毛利率、EBITDA利润率水平均优于传统云计算业务，伴随前置资本开支投入逐步向收入转化，我们预计公司经调整毛利率及EBITDA利润率将持续稳步改善。The company's recent situation
On November 11, 2024, Jinshanyun issued an announcement on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange announcing the conclusion of a financial lease agreement with CITIC Financial Leasing to accelerate investment related to AI infrastructure. According to the agreement, the total principal amount of the financial lease is 0.25 billion yuan, the agreement period is three years, and the initial annual interest rate is 4.35%.
reviews
Firmly invest in AI computing power, and the sources of liquidity continue to be abundant. Since the second half of 2023, the pace of investment in the company's AI infrastructure has accelerated significantly; according to our estimates, in the year since 3Q23, the company invested more than RMB 3.6 billion in capital expenditure, mainly in AI computing power. At the same time, related investment has achieved considerable revenue conversion. 2Q24's AI business revenue reached 0.33 billion yuan, accounting for about 26%/17% of public cloud/ overall revenue, respectively. We believe that the expansion of the company's financing channels will provide more adequate support for AI computing power investment in subsequent quarters. In 2Q24, the company's adjusted gross margin reached 17.1%, improving for eight consecutive quarters; the adjusted EBITDA profit margin continued to improve month-on-month after being corrected in 1Q24, reaching 3.2% for the quarter. Considering that the ROI and gross profit margin of the company's AI computing power investment and EBITDA profit margin are superior to traditional cloud computing services, we expect the company's adjusted gross margin and EBITDA profit margin to continue to improve steadily as upfront capital expenditure investment gradually shifts to revenue.
It continues to benefit from the growing demand of the Millet and Jinshan ecosystem. Over the past two years, against the backdrop of shrinking demand from major external customers, the company has refocused infrastructure and production and research resources on customers within the ecosystem. In the second half of 2023, Xiaomi returned to Jinshan Cloud's largest customer after a lapse of five years; in 1H24, Xiaomi and Jinshan Group contributed more than 0.7 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 19.2% of total revenue, of which Xiaomi accounted for about 15.2% of total revenue.
Since Xiaomi announced a strategic upgrade in August 2023 and placed AI in an important strategic position, the company has iterated to the second generation; Xiaomi said it will continue to expand the model scale, improve model capabilities and the implementation effect of cloud collaboration, and strive to fully empower the “entire ecosystem of people and cars” strategy with industry-leading AI capabilities. As the only strategic computing power service platform for Xiaomi and Jinshan Ecology, we expect Jinshan Cloud to take the lead in benefiting from the increase in resource demand brought about by the AI business layout of ecosystem customers; it is expected that the revenue share of ecosystem customers will continue to increase and provide chassis support for the company's mid-term revenue growth.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Considering that the company's AI computing power investment is faster than expected and the demand level is higher than expected, we raised the 2024 and 2025 revenue by 1.5%/5.7% to 7.5 billion yuan/8.3 billion yuan; the adjusted EBITDA was raised by 54.9%/77.5% to 0.476 billion yuan/0.934 billion yuan, mainly considering revenue growth and the release of operating leverage faster than expected; the adjusted net loss forecast to mother was 0.942 billions/0.754 The billion yuan was adjusted to 0.976 billion yuan/0.864 billion yuan. The corresponding annual discount amortization was higher than expected, mainly in the context of increased capital expenditure.
Maintaining an outperforming industry rating; considering valuation restoration in the context of the company's fundamentals, compounding growth expectations and increasing the target price by 71% to $6 (switching the valuation to 2025, giving 1.3 times the market-sales ratio), corresponding to 47% upward space. The company is currently trading 0.9 times the 2025 market-sales rate.
risks
Demand and revenue transformation fell short of expectations; industry competition intensified; customer dependency risk.
