3Q24 饮料销售表现较为亮眼，食品营收增长稳健。受益于饮料及面保持较好增势，3Q24 公司营收同增约6%，分板块看：1）饮料收入于旺季营销及新品带动下营收同增低双位数，延续较好增势，其中红绿茶、冰糖雪梨、海之言等产品均实现双位数增长，无糖茶新品春拂绿茶自4 月铺货以来动销表现良好；2）食品收入同比增长低个位数，其中面同比实现中高单位数增长，环比上半年均实现更好增长，唯开小灶短期表现有所承压，其中公司新品茄皇及红烧牛肉面（焕新升级）表现亮眼，3Q 收入同比实现双位数增长，高端产品汤达人亦逐渐修复，我们预计10 月汤达人增速环比转正。整体看公司3Q 收入较其他食饮子板块表现稳健，尤其显示出饮料需求韧性。3Q24 results are basically in line with our expectations
The net profit of 9M24 was announced uniformly at 1.64 billion yuan, excluding +36% of net profit after annual disposal revenue from the Hefei plant; net profit of 0.67 billion yuan for the corresponding 3Q, or +13.4% year-on-year, which is basically in line with our expectations.
Development trends
Beverage sales performed well in 3Q24, and food revenue grew steadily. Benefiting from the positive growth trend of beverages and noodles, the 3Q24 company's revenue increased by about 6%, by sector: 1) Beverage revenue, driven by peak season marketing and new products, continued to grow well. Among them, products such as red and green tea, rock sugar, and sea words all achieved double-digit growth. The new sugar-free tea product, Chunfu Green Tea, has achieved good sales performance since it was sold in April; 2) Food revenue grew by a low single digit year on year, with medium to high unit growth over the first half of the year. Growth, only the short-term performance of opening small stoves is under pressure. Among them, the company's new products include tomato sauce and braised beef noodles (renewed (Upgrade) The performance was outstanding. 3Q revenue achieved double-digit year-on-year growth, and the high-end product Tang Daren was also gradually recovering. We expect the growth rate of Tang Daren to change from month to month in October. Overall, the company's 3Q revenue performance was steady compared to other food and beverage sub-sectors, showing in particular the resilience of beverage demand.
Gross margin continued to improve, and the 3Q24 rate increase slightly affected the increase in net interest rate. 3Q's gross margin increased by 2-3 ppt year-on-year, mainly benefiting from lower costs, increased capacity utilization, and reduced promotions. Among them, beverage gross margin increased significantly, while the gross margin of noodles increased slightly. The decrease in the margin of improvement compared to 1H was mainly due to the increase in palm oil prices. In terms of expenses, 3Q's sales rate increased year-on-year, mainly due to the promotion of new products, increased investment in refrigerators, and increased shipping costs in the context of the company's commitment to long-term healthy growth. Overall, the net interest rate of 3Q companies improved year on year. We estimate that the improvement was about 0.7ppt, which led to a year-on-year increase in profit of about 13.4% (3Q profit margin base is higher).
The beverage boom is expected to continue in the 4Q and 25 years, and the trend of increasing profit margins will continue. Our grassroots research showed double-digit sales growth in October, with beverage and noodle growth rates improving month-on-month. Considering competitors' share of price increases or short-term benefits and early preparation of goods during the Spring Festival in '25, we expect the 4Q24 company's revenue to continue to grow well. Considering the gradual recovery in demand and the contribution of new products, we expect the company's revenue to grow steadily in '25. On the profit side, benefiting from declining costs, we expect the gross margin of 4Q beverages to continue to improve, the increase in panel palm oil costs or offset the impact of the reduction, and profit margins may be relatively stable. We expect the overall profit margin for 4Q to rise steadily. Looking ahead to 25 years, if costs are not significantly disrupted, we expect reductions, increased capacity utilization, and structural improvements, or are expected to continue to drive profit margin improvements. Looking at the medium to long term, we believe that a good boom in the beverage industry is expected to benefit continued performance growth. Furthermore, considering the relatively stable pattern of the noodle industry and increased competitive profit claims, we believe that the uniform profit margin is also expected to improve. 1H24OPM is 2.9%, and the company hopes to restore it to the medium unit level in the next 1-2 years.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Maintaining the 24/25 profit forecast; the company traded at 15/13 times 24/25 P/E; maintained a target price of HK$8.6, corresponding 18/16 times 24/25 P/E and 19% upward space, maintaining an outperforming industry rating.
risks
Demand recovery fell short of expectations, and raw material prices fluctuated.
