Jinwu Finance | Morgan Stanley's research report pointed out that alibaba (09988) stated that commodity trading volume (GMV) during the November 11 shopping festival-related period showed strong growth. The bank expects the company's GMV and Customer Management Revenue (CMR) for the third quarter ending in December to grow by an average of 4.5% per year. Alibaba provided an earlier update on the November 11 data, but because the actual numbers were not disclosed, the proportion of GMV growth contribution in the third quarter could not be determined. The above growth forecast is mainly affected by the collection of basic software service fees.

However, the bank pointed out that this year's major platform November 11 shopping festival-related competition is fierce, especially with increased subsidies and early start. The bank expects promotional activities to escalate, such as alibaba expanding the 88VIP membership system and attracting new users after integrating WeChat Pay. However, the core adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter is expected to be under pressure, falling by 5% annually.

As for the second quarter ending in September, the bank expects its GMV to increase by 4% to 5% annually, lagging behind peers, with jd.com (09618) expected to increase by 6%; pdd holdings expected to increase by 20%. It is also estimated that the CMR will grow by 2% to 3% annually during the quarter.

The bank gave a target price of $115 for its US stocks and a "market perform" rating.