管理层在分析师会议中称24Q3 公司整体收入呈中单位数增长，其中饮料业务增势延续，24Q3 收入增长低双位数，红绿茶、冰糖雪梨、海之盐实现收入双位数增长，春拂绿茶作为今年的新品，当前发展稳健，公司今年投入12 万台冰箱，24Q3 又追加了一部分冰箱投入、增加消费者露出。24Q3 食品业务亦录得中低单位数收入正增，其中方便面业务收入实现中高单位数增长，部分承接了康师傅产品提价后的溢出份额，茄皇、红烧牛肉面24Q3 录得收入双位数增长，汤达人收入仍有小幅下滑，期待后续改善。Unify China's three-quarter business report. 24Q1-3 net profit was 1.64 billion yuan (+11.5% YoY), corresponding to 24Q3 net profit 0.67 billion (+13.5% YoY); 24Q1-3 deducted non-net profit +35% YoY.
On the revenue side, the company's overall revenue achieved medium unit growth in 24Q3. Among them, the beverage business grew by low double digits, red and green tea, rock sugar, and sea salt achieved double-digit growth; the food business grew by medium to high units. Among them, the instant noodle business achieved medium to high unit growth, and is expected to achieve steady growth throughout the year, driven by the launch of new products and the upgrading of old products. The gross profit margin of the 24Q3 company was 34%, up more than 2 pcts from the previous year. The gross margin of the food business increased little. It was mainly affected by the rise in palm oil prices, but the price of flour fell year on year; the gross margin of the beverage business increased a lot, and the prices of raw materials such as sugar, milk powder, and cartons decreased. Looking ahead, against the backdrop of resilient revenue, a stable competitive landscape, and effective management, the company's profit margin is expected to continue to rise, the dividend ratio is attractive, and “buying” is maintained.
The beverage business continues to grow, and the food business also records positive growth
Management said at the analysts' meeting that 24Q3's overall revenue increased by medium units. Among them, the beverage business continued to grow by double digits. Red green tea, rock sugar, and sea salt achieved double-digit revenue growth. As a new product this year, Chunfu Green Tea is currently developing steadily. The company invested 0.12 million refrigerators this year, and 24Q3 added some additional investment in refrigerators to increase consumer exposure. The 24Q3 food business also recorded a positive increase in medium- and low-unit revenue. Among them, revenue from the instant noodle business achieved medium to high unit growth, partly taking over the overflow share of Master Kong's products after the price increase. Zhouhuang and braised beef noodles 24Q3 recorded double-digit revenue growth, and Tang Daren's revenue is still declining slightly, and we look forward to subsequent improvements.
24Q3 gross margin increased by more than 2 pcts year on year, and the cost ratio increased 24Q3 company's gross profit margin by 34% year on year, and increased by more than 2 pct year over year. In terms of attribution, the 24Q3 gross margin increase was due to a decrease in raw material prices, 1/3 due to an increase in capacity utilization, and 1/3 due to reduction.
Specifically, the gross margin of the 24Q3 food business increased little. It was mainly affected by the rise in palm oil prices, but the price of flour fell year on year; the gross margin of the beverage business increased a lot, and the prices of raw materials such as sugar, milk powder, and cartons decreased. On the cost side, the 24Q3 cost rate increased year-on-year, mainly due to increased investment in new product brand building. In terms of attribution, the 24Q3 cost rate increased year-on-year. 2/3 was due to an increase in product promotion costs, and 1/3 was due to freight and refrigerator investment. Taken together, the 24Q3 company's net interest rate still recorded a positive year-on-year increase.
High dividends, steady growth, maintaining a “buy” rating
Taking into account the trend of increasing profit margins due to fluctuations in raw material costs and improvements in management efficiency, we slightly adjusted our profit forecast. We expect EPS of 0.43/0.46/0.50 yuan (previous 0.42/0.46/0.49 yuan). Referring to the comparable company's 25-year average PE 18x (Wind's consistent expectations), we will give it a 25-year 18x PE, corresponding to a target price of HK$8.90 (HK$8.22, corresponding to 18x in 24 years) to maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Industry competition intensifies, macroeconomic performance falls short of expectations, food safety issues.
