On November 13, the sentiment in the cryptos market significantly declined, with bitcoin falling to $86,000 at one point. As of the time of writing,$Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ it fell by 1.01% to $87,142; $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$ it fell by 3.14% to $3,142.04.
Key Focus
Trump officially announces Musk's new position, dogecoin surges.
After Trump appointed Musk and the founder of biotechnology company Vivek Ramaswamy to lead the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), dogecoin soared to 42 cents. After Trump won the presidential election last week, traders bet on a wave of relaxed regulations and industry-friendly policies towards the crypto industry. Since then, bitcoin has repeatedly reached new highs, with the current trading price close to $0.09 million.
BitMEX co-founder: If Trump's 'America First' plan succeeds, BTC will reach $1 million.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes released a new article titled 'Black or White?' He stated that the upcoming Trump administration will implement Trump's 'America First' plan, aiming to boost key industries (shipbuilding, semiconductor factories, car manufacturing, etc.) back to the US by providing government tax breaks and subsidies to increase nominal GDP.
Hayes expects the new government to promote the reshoring of manufacturing to the US through massive fiscal stimulus and industrial policies. The policies will include providing tax incentives and subsidies to key industries, and offering cheap financing through the banking system. This is expected to lead to rapid expansion of bank credit, potentially exceeding the $4 trillion stimulus during the pandemic. In this context, Hayes believes that bitcoin will become the best choice to counter fiat devaluation, potentially reaching $1 million.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer: Bitcoin will rise to $0.5 million or higher.
Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer stated that $0.5 million per bitcoin is the correct boundary between early and later stages. Currently, the gold market size is $18 trillion, while bitcoin is around $2 trillion. This makes the total value storage market size approximately $20 trillion. When bitcoin matures, it will at least share this market with gold equally. There are currently about 20 million bitcoins, with the remaining 1 million to be issued over the next century. So when bitcoin reaches $0.5 million, it will occupy half of the market share.
Currently, governments hold about 20% of the global gold reserves, compared to less than 2% holding all bitcoins. For bitcoin to approach the $0.5 million mark, we need to see this gap shrink. The biggest example might be the plan of Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, USA, proposing the establishment of a national bitcoin reserve to use government funds to purchase over $80 billion worth of bitcoin. If we start to see this happening, reaching the $0.5 million bitcoin price is entirely feasible.
Ripple CEO: Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030.
Ripple CEO Sebastian Serrano believes that driven by the growth of US debt and the devaluation of the dollar, bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030. While traditional investors shift to gold, Serrano believes that young investors prefer bitcoin as a safe asset to hedge against poorly managed fiscal risks.
Analyst: The potential peak of Bitcoin price may arrive around the end of May 2025.
According to the Copper report based on historical data, the potential peak price of Bitcoin may arrive around the end of May 2025. Analysts studied the historical growth of Bitcoin's market cap during different bull and bear market cycles, believing that the average duration of a Bitcoin cycle is about 756 days. The analyst stated that as of now, Bitcoin is on the 554th day of the current cycle, which began around the middle of 2023.
The report states, "Based on the average cycle duration, this timeline suggests that Bitcoin could reach its peak in approximately 200 days, around the middle of 2025." The report also points out that the expected peak of Bitcoin might align with the possibility of a U.S. economic recession. Analysts emphasized a report from JPMorgan, which stated a 45% chance of an economic downturn happening in the second half of 2025, coinciding with their predicted Bitcoin peak timing.
Genius Group adopts a global 'Bitcoin-first' strategy, planning to allocate over 90% of reserves to Bitcoin.
AI-driven education group Genius Group announced that its board of directors has adopted a global 'Bitcoin-first' strategy, using Bitcoin as the primary reserve asset. The board of directors has approved a commitment to allocate 90% or more of current and future reserves to Bitcoin, aiming for an initial investment of $0.12 billion through ATMs to hold as the primary treasury reserve asset in the long term, while launching the Web3 Wealth Renaissance education series and enabling global Bitcoin payments on the company's Edtech platform.
Coinbase CEO: The crypto market is poised to become the 'next stock market and internet.'
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong announced the official launch of the COIN50, a market cap-weighted index of the crypto market. This index provides investors with a new way to track the overall performance of the crypto economy. COIN50 tracks the top 50 crypto assets that meet the Coinbase listing standards, aiming to offer convenience to investors seeking broad exposure to the crypto market.
Armstrong stated that while Bitcoin remains the most important crypto asset, more investors are looking to gain broad exposure to the entire crypto market. Networks like Ethereum and Solana demonstrate strong utility in stablecoin payments, with payment volumes expected to exceed $20 trillion this year. Additionally, projects like TON and World show activity in emerging markets, while DeFi tokens like Uniswap and Layer 2 scaling solutions like Optimism further enrich the ecosystem.
Armstrong pointed out that in the future, every project, community, and even individual or ai may have their own tokens. With the gradual clarity of regulations, the registration of compliant crypto securities will improve capital formation efficiency. He believes that the crypto market is expected to become the 'next version of the stock market and internet', with the emergence of millions of tokens, the COIN50 index launched by Coinbase will bring important infrastructure support to the financial system, promoting further integration of the crypto market with the traditional financial system.
Bitcoin futures basis yield has climbed to a seven-month high.
According to The Block, the basis return rates for Bitcoin futures have reached a seven-month high, with analysts from QCP Capital suggesting that this may indicate heightened market leverage risks. The current market shows a strong demand for call options with high strike prices, indicating investors' optimism regarding further upward moves. Analysts point out a significant increase in perpetual contract funding rates, with the basis exceeding 18% by late November, and the Bitcoin price nearing the crucial $90,000 mark. QCP analysts warn that high basis return rates may come with risks of leveraged liquidation, potentially triggering a market pullback if price trends turn unfavorable. Additionally, Philipp Pieper, co-founder of Swarm Markets, notes that part of the recent Bitcoin surge stems from cautious capital re-entry into the market, but fluctuations in market sentiment may lead to mid-term profit-taking and price volatility.
Editor/rice
