罗森伯格周二在给客户的一份报告中表示，Top economists have pointed out key signs of weakness in usa businesses, and warned that stock investors may be overly optimistic about Trump's pro-business policies.
Top American economist David Rosenberg said that the stock market rebound driven by Trump's victory seems to be increasingly disconnected from reality.
Within a week after Trump won his second presidential term, the major U.S. stock indices hit new highs. However, the founder of Rosenberg Research, David Rosenberg, expressed concerns about this market rebound.
In a report to clients on Tuesday, Rosenberg pointed out that the soaring U.S. stocks are ignoring crucial signs of weakness in American corporations. He specifically mentioned "zombie companies".
This term refers to companies burdened with high debt loads, unable to generate enough revenue to pay their interest expenses, with their numbers rising over the past decade.
An analysis by the Associated Press found that by 2023, approximately 7,000 listed companies globally were identified as "zombie companies", with about 2,000 in the USA. This is about 30% higher than the number of zombie companies recorded in the USA a decade ago.
Rosenberg stated that this trend is a worrying signal for the credit market, as many small-cap stocks have already become part of the 'zombie company' category.
He said, 'The worrisome phenomenon of 'zombie companies' has resurfaced. Among the 3,000 component companies of the Russell 3000 index, approximately 600 are now classified as 'zombie companies' - about 50% more than before the global financial crisis erupted.'
"This clearly indicates that the current optimism is disconnected from reality, based on the hope for the new government to reduce regulations and taxes. However, with the Republican Party holding a slim majority in the House of Representatives, and both parties being fiscal conservatives, from our perspective, this seems unlikely," Rosenborg added.
Other market forecasters warn that the rebound driven by Trump's victory in the election may ultimately disappear, especially considering the already high stock valuations. Bill Smead, Chief Investment Officer of Smead Capital Management, stated that the "Trump Bump" is pushing the stock market bubble to extremes, potentially leading investors into years of low returns.
Editor/Rocky
