China Merchants Securities stated in research reports that according to industry data, this year's "Double Eleven" total online sales increased by 26.6% year-on-year, reaching 1.44 trillion yuan. Among them, traditional e-commerce platforms sales reached 1.11 trillion yuan, a 20.1% increase year-on-year; live streaming e-commerce platforms sales reached 332.5 billion yuan, a 54.6% increase year-on-year.
China Merchants Securities stated that compared to this year's "618" and last year's "Double Eleven", this year's "Double Eleven" growth rate has rebounded slightly, albeit with some benefit from extending the period by 7 to 10 days. In addition, the proportion of live streaming e-commerce sales to total online sales has increased from 19% last year's "Double Eleven" to 23% this year, but has decreased compared to 27% of this year's "618". Home appliances, mobile digital, outfits, and cosmetics and personal care products all saw year-on-year growth rates exceeding 20%.
China Merchants Securities expects that the average revenue growth rate of e-commerce companies covered in their 2024 and 2025 fiscal years will reach 18% and 10% respectively; profit growth rates will be 22% and 10% respectively. As for the average PE ratios for the fiscal years 2024 and 2025, they will be 9.2 and 8.6 times respectively, and they recommend Alibaba (BABA.US) as the industry's top pick.
In addition, China Merchants Securities believes that the sales growth of cosmetics and sports categories generally meets expectations, and has accelerated compared to the "618" period. Among them, Perfect Diary is one of the best-selling brands, Anta (02020.HK) and its subsidiary Fila have shown steady performance, hence their top industry choice is Perfect Diary (02367.HK). China Merchants Securities provides detailed investment ratings and target prices for China's e-commerce and consumer industries in a separate table.