Core views:
1. Geely Automobile: Committed to becoming a global intelligent electric technology company. Zhejiang Geely Holding Group was founded in 1986 and entered the automobile industry in 1997. Currently, the total assets exceed 510 billion yuan, the total number of employees exceeds 0.14 million, and has entered the Fortune 500 for 13 consecutive years (ranked 185 in 2024). It is the only Chinese automobile group in the top 10 global automobile brand portfolio value rankings.
2. ZEEKR: High-end stabilization, PHEV broadens growth channels. ZEEKR has a full-stack layout of intelligent driving, smart cockpit, and electrification technology. ZEEKR 001 has a 0.25-0.35 million pure electric market share of 9.3% (big car search data), leading the Chinese brand in pure electric sales in this segment. ZEEKR is positioned as a luxury technology brand, and its products target a user base of 0.2 million or more; with the launch of PHEVs and other products next year, the growth space is expected to expand dramatically.
3. Geely: The transformation momentum is breaking, and the product cycle is arriving at an accelerated pace. The strategic model Galaxy Starship will be released within 7 years and will be equipped with a new generation of Thor superelectric hybrid technology. According to Geely Automobile Group CEO Gan Jiayue, Geely Automobile is about to transition from a NEV investment period to a period of explosion, and various brands have reached the stage where NEV models are launched in batches.
4. Lynk & Co: Steady and steady, global strategy accelerated. New models were launched at an accelerated pace. The Linker 08 had a share of 16.51% in the 0.2-0.25 million mixed/extended range market (Big Car Search data), making it the TOP4 in this segment. Launched in Europe, the Lynk & Co Z20 is Linker's first pure electric SUV, built on SEA. From the implementation of Linker's European strategy in 2021 to the first half of this year, overseas shipments have exceeded 0.072 million vehicles, and the Lynk & Co Z20 will further enrich Linker's overseas product matrix.
Investment advice: Geely Auto's transformation is in full swing, and the high-end is expected to break ground. The company's 2024-2026 revenue is 241.536, 320.073, 383.848 billion yuan, net profit to mother 15.766, 11.875, 15.627 billion yuan, EPS is 1.57, 1.18, 1.55 yuan; the closing price on November 11, 2024 is HK$14.60 (HK$1 = 0.9298 yuan), corresponding to 2024-2026 PE of 8.62, 11.45, 8.70 times; first coverage, given a “gain” rating.
Risk warning: Increased competition in the industry exceeds expectations, technological progress falls short of expectations, sales of new products fall short of expectations, etc.