维持“增持”评级，下调盈利预测并上调目标价：因成品油需求低于预期，且炼化板块仍处于底部复苏期，我们下调公司2024-2026 年EPS 为0.13/0.33/0.96 元（原为0.24/0.69/1.16 元）。参考可比公司采用PB 估值法估值，可比公司2024 平均PB 为2.77，对应目标价为12.23 元（原为11.20 元），维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
The company's third-quarter results fell short of expectations due to fluctuations in oil prices and demand recovery falling short of expectations. The company cooperated with Saudi Aramco to expand the downstream market, and the controlling shareholders showed confidence that their holdings continued to increase.
Key points of investment:
Maintain the “gain” rating, lower the profit forecast and raise the target price: as demand for refined oil products was lower than expected and the refining and chemical sector was still recovering at the bottom, we lowered the company's 2024-2026 EPS by 0.13/0.33/0.96 yuan (originally 0.24/0.69/1.16 yuan). Referring to the valuation of comparable companies using the PB valuation method, the comparable company's average PB in 2024 was 2.77, and the corresponding target price was 12.23 yuan (originally 11.20 yuan), maintaining the “gain” rating.
Third-quarter results were under pressure, and fluctuations in oil prices affected performance: in the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved net profit of 0.877 billion yuan, +714.73% year-on-year, and net profit after deduction of 0.688 billion yuan, or +630.51% year-on-year. Among them, Q3 achieved net profit of 0.019 billion yuan, -98.48% year-on-year, -93.87% month-on-month, and net profit after deduction of 0.016 billion yuan, -98.74% year-on-year, and -92.00% month-on-month. The reason why the third quarter results were lower than expected was that demand for chemicals was weak, and refined oil products were affected by new energy substitution, etc., and demand was lower than market expectations. Furthermore, oil prices fluctuated greatly in the third quarter, causing depreciation of some products and affecting performance.
Prices of some chemicals weakened in the third quarter, and inventory depreciated or affected performance: The average price of crude oil in the third quarter was 78.60 US dollars/barrel, down 6.44 US dollars/barrel from Q2. Affected by the fall in crude oil, the average price of related chemicals all declined month-on-month. Among them, PTA/PX/pure benzene/styrene/ethylene/propylene were -8.49%/-9.16%/-6.09%/-1.75%/-1.30%/+1.27%. In terms of price spread, PTA-PX/PX-naphtha/ethylene glycol-0.55* ethylene/gasol-naphtha price differences were +28.68%/-22.69%/+25.24%/-7.76% month-on-month, respectively. Although price spreads for some products increased month-on-month, inventory impairment may further drag down performance.
Cooperation with Saudi Aramco shows confidence: the company has signed a number of strategic agreements with Saudi Arabia, Aramco and the US to expand the downstream market and jointly develop overseas markets through mutual participation of subsidiaries and joint construction of projects. On August 21, the company announced that the controlling shareholders intend to continue to increase their holdings of the company's shares by no less than 0.5 billion yuan and no more than 1 billion yuan, and not set a price range for increasing their holdings. This increase in majority shareholders' holdings can boost investor confidence and support the company's long-term healthy development.
Risk warning: crude oil prices fluctuate greatly, and the recovery in downstream demand falls short of expectations
